Red alert for Italy. After the consumer crisis, an economy with zero growth and too much debt tourism begins to show the symptoms of the disease. Not to mention external factors such as trade tensions, Coronavirus, Brexit, climate change. In this scenario, a slowdown in tourism risks definitively bringing our country to its knees, having an impact on GDP of 3 tenths of a point.
The trend that is reshaping the demographics of businesses in Italian cities has been underway for more than ten years. According to an analysis conducted by the Research Office of Confcommercio "Business demography in Italian cities" the overall presence of retail trade decreases, both in the historic center and in the suburbs. On the other hand, the hotel, bar and restaurant sector is increasing.
The results show that from 2008 to 2011 almost seventy thousand shops closed their doors. The historic centers of Italian cities are changing: in these 11 years, retail trade in fixed locations has dropped by 14,3%. Between 2012 and 2019, on the other hand, foreign companies in the trade increased by 27,1%, while Italian ones decreased by 5,6%. Some Municipalities risk commercial decline.
If initially the activities most affected were those of the center, now the phenomenon is also infecting those of the peripheral areas. This demonstrates that the extinction of commercial establishments is no longer due, as it was a few years ago, to excessively high rents or to the growing presence of shopping centres, full of foreign brands.
But what is this phenomenon due to? There is now a pathology especially for competition from electronic commerce which has radically changed the way we live, produce, buy and communicate. Online shops could seriously destroy the social fabric of small businesses, which meanwhile are dying. In fact, there are those who prefer to buy online both for timing and for convenience, guided by a few clicks, waiting for delivery at home without venturing into city stress. If on the one hand digital consumers are growing, on the other hand shops such as bookshops, stationery shops, hardware stores and clothing are decreasing, leaving historic centers less and less attractive.
Other factors driving the growing increase in vacant stores, both in small and large cities, are the reduction in consumption and the still too high tax burdenespecially affecting households and businesses. Not to mention the Italians' propensity to save.
All reasons why an entrepreneur prefers to open a restaurant, bar or bed and breakfast rather than a haberdashery or bookshop. But the deterioration of the commercial fabric does not only affect the economy or tourism, but it also creates a certain social discomfort, dissatisfaction and insecurity. Furthermore, the disappearance of neighborhood shops significantly reduces the value of real estate, resulting in a huge loss of wealth for families.
Secondo the president of Confcommercio, Carlo Sangalli “There is a need for a national plan for urban regeneration, to improve the quality of life of residents and to make historic centers increasingly attractive. We need greater support for the innovation of small sales areas and, above all, an overall tax reform to lower taxes and support domestic demand which, as we know, is worth 80% of GDP. Beautiful and functioning cities are a great economic and social value for our territories, an engine of growth and employment that absolutely cannot be turned off".
To remedy the situation and revitalize local shops, it would be necessary to implement urban regeneration policies, foster greater integration between government, businesses and individuals, but above all reaffirm the centrality of the tertiary sector as a driving force for the country's economic development. Because, an innovative tertiary sector, capable of strengthening the trade and tourism sectors, allows for greater social cohesion and enhancement of the territory.
