In recent years, the end of July has often represented a moment in which hopes are cultivated, quickly superseded by events. In the 2007 international finance was already showing some crunches, but all in all not so alarming if it is true that the ECB was still engaging in interest rate increases in June aimed at preventing a possible increase in inflation. Those who went peacefully on vacation that year…had to change their minds quickly: from the beginning of August the European interbank market entered a deep crisis which gave rise to the difficult phase we are still experiencing.
On the other hand, a year later, in July 2008, the situation still seemed manageable, the correction of the stock exchanges had until then proved to be of an overall acceptable entity, so much so that in May the Fed had interrupted the phase of lowering the level of official rates begun a year earlier. At least on that occasion, those who had taken their holidays in August had enjoyed them, only to forget them immediately after their return, with the default of Lehman Brothers in mid-September.
Perhaps it will be in order not to create too many illusions that the explosion of the eurozone crisis manifests itself in the 2011 since the first days of July. We remember from that summer the summer discussions on the daily announcement of a new manoeuvre, different from the one commented on the previous day; an excellent substitute for the traditional commentary on the news on the transfer market, which is also characterized by the daily announcement of an important purchase which belies the previous day's announcement.
At this point it seemed clear to everyone, if there were any further need, that in July it is good not to think of being able to relax too much in view of a seaside August and a recovery in September.
It will therefore have been to safeguard the legitimate requests for a rest period, that last year, on 26 July 2012, the President of the ECB, delivers the “whatever it takes” speech inaugurating what appears to be the beginning of a long phase of celebrations rather than a period of relaxation. Certainly, thanks to the support of the other central banks, and the Japanese one in particular gave the help of him, July 2013 appears marked by the fruits of the turnaround initiated a year earlier by the central banks. We can see the evidence from many quarters: growing stock exchanges, long-term rates that are starting to increase, economic indicators that allow us to glimpse the way out.
In other words, it seems possible that the scenario for the next few months actually envisages the beginning of the recovery. Or maybe it's just July pranks.
