China is growing at a rate of 8% a year, yet it is slowing down and, whether it likes it or not, it is at a turning point: increased consumption, welfare, international relations and globalization are the cornerstones of a change that is approaching and of which the 18th congress of the Communist Party, which opened yesterday, must define times and contours. Most of us will not notice anything yet what will be decided this week in Tiananmen Square will have important repercussions on our lives. To understand what will happen and how much all this will affect our future, FIRSTonline met Romeo Orlandi, vice president of the Asia Observatory and professor of economics of East Asian countries at the University of Bologna.
FIRSTonline – Professor Orlandi this week is changing the world: two days ago the election of the US president and yesterday the start of the 18th congress of the Communist Party of China, at the end of which all the top management will be renewed, with Xi Jinping destined to become secretary- president and Li Keqian premier. Two equally important events?
The Congress that opened yesterday is not yet as important as the American elections, but its weight in the world context is growing more and more. The Chinese economy should catch the American one by 2019, but it's 1,4 billion people against 300 million, so it's normal. US dominance is indisputable: America's military weight, global ambitions, technology and soft power are unrivaled for now. But China is at a turning point, so this Congress is particularly interesting. Indeed, China must consolidate its development and try to maintain growth at the current levels of 7-8%. On the agenda is the need to reduce the weight of state-owned companies, to rebalance the distribution of wealth between internal and external provinces, to increase consumption while keeping inflation under control. External demand is down, because Europe is in crisis and North America is not doing well, so it's time to do something domestically.
FIRSTonline – Should the Chinese transform themselves from tireless workers into voracious consumers?
Consumption is an important issue. The goal of an increase has been on the table for some time, also for this reason wages have increased, but the increase has not given the expected results. We probably need more: more welfare, more pensions, more optimism, more confidence in the future. The country should devote some of its huge resources to "the people" to allay their fears. In fact, peasant culture leads to saving to buy a house, but the space for other consumption is reduced. There is a cultural leap to be made and this implies greater openness of universities and some response to the confused claims of civil society.
FIRSTonline – Which line is emerging?
There is a conservative wing of the party who thinks of a gradual development and a reformer one who would like to speed up times and ways, up to changing the party itself. However, it is difficult to overturn a model that has worked up to now.
FIRSTonline – Will we Westerners perceive any of this?
Not this week. At the congress, politics is made in the corridors. The names of eligible candidates will be confirmed and we will see people all dressed alike, in the Western style, making unanimous choices. The secretary, who also becomes president of the country, and the next prime minister are already part of the 9 in the political office, thus representing continuity with the current leadership group. However, the secretary will draw up a line of the party that will take into account the various instances.
FIRSTonline – Can the world tolerate a more consumerist China? And is the territory of China sufficient to accommodate the aspirations of 1,4 billion people?
The territory is huge, as much as Europe, even if half of it is deserted. As far as consumption and the improvement of living standards are concerned, the "world" can do nothing about it. Obviously if all the Chinese decide to buy a car we will have oil price and pollution problems, but there is no reason why we should have a car for every 2 people and they 1 for every 50.
FIRSTonline – Which direction will XI Jinping take?
I believe that of a gradual development, keeping inflation under control. But the scenarios are very complex, even on the foreign front. Think of the Pacific area, where the global center of gravity has shifted. Obama looks that way, because there are the greatest tensions there. Europe, divided as it is, remains in the background, peripheral and not very relevant because it is too immersed in its own problems. For China and the USA, on the other hand, relations with Japan, with South Korea and a growing weight in the area are at stake. By now even China cannot hide, globalization touches its actions, it can no longer decide everything on its own and this, in the end, will make it an "almost" normal country.
