2014 could be the year of overtaking. For the first time in history, China will conquer the palm of first world economy, undermining the United States from the top of the podium. The passing of the baton will come much sooner than expected: so far the most reliable estimates spoke of 2019, but it is now possible that the Washington-Beijing relay could already become a reality this year.
The news was released by the Financial Times, which in turn cites a study by the World Bank's International Comparison Program, updated for the first time since 2005. The USA had been in first place since 1872, when they had overtaken Great Britain . India in third place. Also among the top 12 are Russia, Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico. With a population equal to 17% of that of the entire planet, the richest countries represent 50% of the world's GDP.
According to the study, in 2005, China's economy was about half that of the US. In 2011, however, it reached 87%. The merit was not only of Chinese growth, but also of the changes in the calculation method, now based on purchasing power parity (PPP), considered more reliable for this type of comparison. In 2011 "the United States remains the first economy in the world, followed closely by China" analysts write in the report.
On the basis of these data, and considering the Chinese growth of 24% from 2011 to 2014 compared to the 7,6% of the American one (numbers from the International Monetary Fund), the Financial Times comes to the conclusion that China this year will beat the United States.
