China's economic weight in the world economy has increased significantly over the past 15 years, so much so that China's share of GDP in the world in 2015 (evaluated as purchasing power parity) it reached 17,1% and is currently the largest in the globe. This share is set to further increase in the future, considering China's GDP growth rate. However, as indicated by Intesa Sanpaolo, internationally, this surprising economic performance does not seem to have been accompanied by a corresponding expansion of the country's geopolitical role. Although the renminbi was included by the IMF in the SDR currency basket, China has actually been kept out of both the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Treaty (TTIP) and has not yet been granted market economy status by the EU. At the same time, at the national level, growing imbalances have emerged, generated by overcapacity in some sectors, particularly in heavy industry and state-owned enterprises (which have seen massive investment in domestic infrastructure), to unprecedented levels of demand for energy commodities, as well as environmental pollution.
From this point of view, theOBOR initiative can actually be considered as a long-term project capable of repaying both the geopolitical deficit and the internal economic imbalances. The action plan, released by the Chinese authorities in March 2015, was announced in a multipolar context, where Russia is trying to redefine its sphere of influence in Europe and Asia, the Gulf states and Iran are in competition to extend their influence the MENA Region and the European Union are struggling against internal disruptive forces. The New Silk Road is then a strategic initiative of China for the improvement of links and cooperation between markets in Eurasia. Includes the land routes of the "Silk Road Economic Zone" and the "XNUMXst Century Maritime Silk Road", also known as the "zone and street initiative" or "one zone, one street" with the corresponding English acronym OBOR (one belt, one road). Starting from the development of transport and logistics infrastructures, the strategy aims to encourage international investment flows and commercial outlets for Chinese products. At the same time it was launched the proposal to set up the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), with a capital of 100 billion dollars, of which China itself would be the main partner, with a commitment of 29,7 billion and with other Asian countries (including India and Russia) and Oceania for another 45 billion. Italy has undertaken to subscribe a share of 2,5 billion.
In this perspective, the OBOR initiative can also help address the efforts undertaken during the last two five-year plans to rebalance China's growth model by channeling domestic overcapacities in the steel and cement sectors into foreign investment and supporting the manufacturing sector, while reduce its dependence on foreign technologies. The architecture of the action plan is in this context designed to guarantee China the best conditions for the export of raw materials and the global extension of large enterprises.
Within China, the action plan includes several provinces:
- in the Northwest and Northeast Regions: Xingjiang, Shanxi, Gansu, Ningxia Hui and Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning;
- in the southwestern region: Guanxi, Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, Pearl River – economic zone of Xinjiang, Yunnan and Tibet;
- in coastal regions: Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan;
- inland regions: the area adjacent to the Yangtze River, around Chengdu and Chongqing, central Henan Province, Hohhot, Baotou, Erdos and Yulin, and around Harbin and Changchun.
In relations with Asia and Europe, the action plan of the initiative identifies six main economic corridors along sea and land routes:
- Eurasian corridor;
- Russia – China – Mongolia;
- China – Central Asia – Western Asia;
- China – Indochina;
- China – Pakistan;
- Bangladesh – China – India – Myanmar.
In this scenario, the total amount of investment potentially earmarked for the region Western Balkans, mainly in the supply of energy and transport infrastructure, can currently be estimated at about 11 billion dollars. This value alone could increase the amount of total FDI in the Western Balkans from 52 billion recorded at the end of 2014 to 63 billion, with an estimated impact on total productivity and GDP growth of almost 1%.
However, two factors may make the finalization of the medium-term OBOR agenda less linear than expected, namely the effective level of involvement of local businesses in the implementation of investment projects and the funding instruments specifically considered. The operating model of all Chinese projects so far is quite similar: the projects are generally provided by Chinese state-owned enterprises as prime contractor and financed by loans on favorable terms from Chinese banks. The agreements, However, they also provided for the possibility for local companies to be subcontracted up to 50% of the value of a project, an opportunity that would increase their chances of success. In the case of the construction of the Danube bridge, the value of the construction works was divided approximately 50:50 between the Chinese counterpart, responsible for the construction of the bridge, and the local companies, which carried out the construction of the access roads and the flooring. Here then is that the amount of investment projects involved in the OBOR initiative in the Balkans represents an extraordinary opportunity for companies active on the spot, especially for SMEs which represent over 99% of the total in the region and account for about 60% of total employment.
