China is slowing down but not too much. Beijing's economy grew by 6,9% in the third quarter, the lowest figure since 2009, down on both the figure at the end of June (+7%) and that of a year ago (+7,3% ). But it still went better than expected, thanks to a good performance in services, compared to the strongly decelerating manufacturing industry. The markets are now betting on new stimuli, not excluding a new discount rate cut, by December. Consequently, the reaction of the Stock Exchanges was positive: Shanghai +0,5%, Shenzhen +0,3%. Weak Hong Kong. The Tokyo Stock Exchange, on the other hand, opens its doors down by 0,6%.
BUSINESS PLACE HOLDS
The wise is the one who knows he does not know. Socratic saying must be kept in mind in these weeks marked by unforeseen and, in part, unpredictable market reactions. Confirmation comes from the mixed results of the Financial Times survey on US rates. No one expects an increase in October, but opinions are divided for December: two-thirds of economists point to an increase in December. Conversely, the big players are convinced that the Fed will not budge.
Much will depend on inflation, which in turn is linked to the trend of oil: the extraordinary OPEC summit will be held in Vienna on Wednesday, extended for the occasion to include other major producers, such as Russia. At the center of the debate will be Venezuela's proposal to return to a regime of automatic production cuts that keep the barrel above $70. In the meantime, the dam of the markets has withstood the rampant uncertainty. In the USA, the S&P index rose by 0,9% to an 8-week high. The good performance of General Electric (+3,2%) compensated for the bad data of Wal Mart (-10% on Thursday) and the mixed performance of financial stocks.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index closed in parity. In Milan, the FtseMib index closed with a rise of 0,36%, recovering the 3% lost at the start of the week in the last three sessions. Relay this morning in the Mid Cap basket. Sorin leaves the Italian stock exchange, after the merger with Cyberonics. Esprinet takes its place.
THE WAIT OF DRAGHI PUSHES THE BTP
The signs of a slowdown in the global economy have been compensated by waiting for the decisions of the central banks. The shower of conflicting data from the US economy has consolidated the feeling that the rate hike is postponed at least to December if not later. Meanwhile, operators' attention is focused on the next meeting of the ECB, scheduled for Thursday: expectations are growing for the announcement of an increase in quantitative easing purchases.
Meanwhile, the Btp/Bund spread fell to 105 basis points. This is the minimum since mid-April. The 1,60-year rate fell to 2016%, its lowest since early May. Government bond issuance in 2015 will be lower than this year, said head of debt management, Maria Cannata. In XNUMX, the Treasury recorded an increase in demand from international investors at Italian government bond auctions, in particular the return of Japanese bonds "after quite some time" and the "very good" interest of US bonds .
FERRARI, THE PRICE ARRIVES TOMORROW
Anticipation is growing for the debut of Ferrari on the Wall Street list on Wednesday 21st. The booking book, given the exceptional demand from investors confirmed by the progress of the road show which closed on Friday in Maranello, records bookings that are far higher than the offer. At this point, it is not excluded that the price may be higher than the price range (48-52 dollars) already communicated. In this case, the value of the IPO could be higher than the billion dollars assumed so far. The price will be communicated tomorrow, on the eve of the Red's debut under the "Race" symbol. To see the debut on Piazza Affari, it will be necessary to wait for the spin-off of Ferrari from FCA and its passage under the direct control of Exor, scheduled for the beginning of 2016. Only then will the eventual listing in Milan become topical.
The Agnelli team has already moved to Piazza Affari. The financial Exor recorded a rise of 5,5%. The company also completed the purchase of 27,8% of the ordinary shares (plus 100% of the special shares) of The Economist group for 287 million pounds, equal to 392 million euros. Fiat Chrysler also rises (+3,3%): the exit from Ferrari is worth, between the IPO and spin-off, about 4 billion dollars. The results of the third quarter will be examined by the board of directors on October 28th. The only sore point remains the difficult economic situation of CNH Industrial (-8,65%), once again among the worst blue chip, under the pressure of the crisis in Brazil and the disappointing data from Caterpillar.
PLACED IN THE FTSE MIB BASKET ALREADY ON DECEMBER 21ST
Speaking of blue chips, it is obvious that Poste Italiane has already booked a place in the Ftse Mib as early as December 21 on the occasion of the first review of the basket. Meanwhile, the IPO is proceeding at a good pace. The first week saw a demand that was twice the offer (38% of the capital) from institutional investors, despite the American part of the road show only starting this morning. The response of savers is also good, which could rise to 30% of the total. For now, the response from employees is more tepid. The price will be announced on Friday, once the transaction is completed, and will correspond to the lower value between that proposed to institutional investors and the maximum set at 7,5 euros.
METROWEB AND ARGENTINA, TWO UNKNOWN FOR TELECOM
Among the "victims" of the last week is Telecom Italia (-5,01%), despite the restart, conditioned and opposed, of the negotiating table on the Metroweb front. The board of directors led by Marco Patuano is asking for total control of the company once the investments are completed, but also the exclusive right to the negotiations which will thus not be able to resume before the letter of intent already signed with Vodafone and Wind expires (October 31st).
But Argentina is above all holding back the former incumbent. The stop by the Buenos Aires authorities Fintech's purchase of Telecom Argentina could change plans: if Fintech has to abandon the operation, Telecom will be able to try to buy back, as per the contracts, the 17% already sold a year ago to the fund controlled by Martinez for 215,7 million dollars, or look for an alternative buyer.
Failure to collect could accelerate the conversion of savings into ordinary with an adjustment that could reach 550 million euros, slightly less than that envisaged for the sale of the South American subsidiary. A solution that shouldn't displease Vivendi who would end up controlling 25% of the capital without further disbursements. But, on the other hand, the strengthening of Ti in South America blocks the way for the merger project between the Italian company and Telefonica, as Vincent Bolloré wouldn't mind: the antitrust authorities of Buenos Aires and that of Rio will never accept a solution such.
SAIPEM FINANCE MAKES THE LIFTING WAITING FOR CDP
Countdown to the settlement of Saipem (-7,09%) one of the stocks that suffered the most during the last five sessions. Weighing the uncertainty on the future capital increase in addition to the belief that the company will not participate in the M&A wave that is affecting the sector. By 27 October, the date of presentation of the new business plan, it will be necessary to define the details of the strategy which envisages a total maneuver of 8 billion, partly through a capital increase, partly through the construction of financing lines which will replace those guaranteed up to now by Eni.
In figures, the pool of institutions headed by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan is thinking about a refinancing of between 4,5 and 5 billion, plus an increase of between 3 and 3,5 billion which will have Cassa Depositi e Prestiti as the main protagonist which, through the Strategic Fund will invest 1-1,5 billion by acquiring a stake between 15 and 20% while Eni, once the objective of deconsolidating the stake in Saipem has been achieved, will in any case remain in the capital.
EVIDENCE OF LUXURY RECOVERY COPING CHINESE GDP
Luxury will try today to reverse course after yet another black week. Moncler (-13%) and Ferragamo were the rear lights of the main basket of the Italian stock exchange. With stock exchanges closed, German Hugo Boss's 2015 profit and revenue estimates were cut on Friday, adding to the disappointment generated in recent days by the quarterly accounts of Lvmh and Burberry. In the spotlight A2A: Montenegro has extended the contract for the joint management of the energy utility Elektroprivreda Cme Gore (Epcg) for five years.
In evidence Pininfarina after the leap on Friday (+4,95%). The market is betting on the arrival of news in the negotiations for the sale of the company to the Indian group Mahindra&Mahindra.
