The result of COP28 in Dubai continues to be analyzed, even questioned, by documents and data that highlight the growth of oil, gas and coal. The USA, for example, is said to be about to resume shale gas extraction in a big way, thus weakening the commitments made a week ago in Qatar. In September they broke the record of 13,2 million barrels of oil per day, achieving a global record. Evidently, it is not just the States that leave room for different interpretations of the Dubai summit. Even China and India do not joke about leaving traditional sources. They took each other three years of time to join the club of the saviors of the globe and who knows if they will respect them. Perplexities cut the world in two like an apple, especially with respect to the times. Yesterday the EEA - European Environment Agency - said that "Member States must urgently strengthen actions to achieve environmental and climate ambitions". We talk about it with Chicco Testa, President of AssoAmbiente.
President Testa, how can you say that Cop28 was a historic event?
“Instead of focusing, as many have done, on the limits of the success of a summit on actions to combat climate change, precisely in an area that owes its development to activity in the oil & gas sector, we highlight that in the final document of COP28 the appropriate terms have been found, the right compromises to get everyone to agree, from oil companies to environmentalists. And above all, the "right of citizenship" is recognized for all usable technologies: not only renewables, but also nuclear, carbon capture, hydrogen, low-carbon fuels."
But the timing of zero emissions is not what we expected. Some doubts are legitimate. Phase out has disappeared, is it really such a scandalous term?
“Not at all. Already in the preparatory work phase for the Dubai conference, the term phase-out, the exit from fossil fuels, was highly debated, so much so that it was replaced with the reduction option (phase-down). In the end, a healthy optirealism approach prevailed, the only possible way for a just, orderly and equitable energy transition. For this reason, the final text invites the parties to move away from fossil fuels, freeing their energy systems from coal, oil and gas (transitioning away).”
Don't you think it's a small step, President Testa?
“The impossible goal of moving away from fossils today, or tomorrow, has been shelved, but it still constitutes a significant step towards escaping from the fossil era. The most important news is that countries are left free to make their own choices. And this is compatible with the speed of implementation of new technologies, the rate of development of the economy in the coming years and the consequent growth in energy consumption. Let's not forget that 28 years after the first UN climate conference, coal, gas and oil cover over 80% of the primary energy consumed by humanity.”
Very true. 28 years have passed during which the dozens of documents produced have remained in drawers. The great options for saving the planet have made their way with difficulty and zigzags. The world has changed, the UN leaders and the leaders of many countries have changed. Entire populations are threatened by climate change, young people protest and do well, but often have no viable proposals. The alarms are increasing and only in the last two years have Russia and the Middle East - major producers of gas and oil - embarked on terrible conflicts. We are living in a phase of great contradictions.
President, in Dubai the final document was also signed by those who live only from ditch sourcesthere…
“For that matter, developing nations have also signed it and have made it clear that they do not intend to give up the exploitation of their mineral wealth to support their growth: from Guyana to Uganda.”
Un another topic. In 2023, the USA invested 166 billion dollars in semiconductors and exported billions of cubic meters of LNG. In your opinion, how can the two aspects be reconciled?
“The exports of this overproduction of gas, obtained thanks to the hard-fought technique of fracking, have allowed Europe to free itself almost completely from dependence on Russian supplies.
Let's say that the USA is a good example for the energy transition....
“The USA intends to strengthen its energy and technological sovereignty, as does China, the number one producer of green energy technologies: from panels to wind turbines and batteries, but which continues to build coal-fired power plants at full speed. A +33% is estimated in 2029 compared to the capacity installed in 2022”.
We will therefore have a system in poor balance because the power plants will operate regardless of all the damage they will cause. Let's think about developing countries. Many were disappointed by the Dubai summit and did not say so.
President Testa, specifically, what did COP 28 say to developing countries affected by climate change?
“700 million dollars already committed to the Loss and Damage Fund to help developing nations contain the damage of climate change. So far the announcement, now let's see how the methods and terms of delivery will be negotiated. Although this represents only a fraction of the billions of dollars that vulnerable countries say are needed to respond to climate disasters. It is however a significant step towards climate finance that recognizes the responsibilities of economies that have acquired their well-being by releasing emissions over the last 150 years.”
Lastly, I ask you if the part of the document according to which individual states must update their national plans against climate change by 2O25 is credible.
“In Dubai there was also recognition that the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) will not be sufficient to meet the growth limits of global average temperatures (well below 2 degrees) indicated by the Paris Agreements. Finally a bit of healthy introspection, and perhaps rethinking about some overly ideological policies. Instead of stubbornly continuing, with each missed target, to raise the bar with increasingly less accessible targets."
