The 2015 Stability Law will have to recover resources to finance a series of commitments already envisaged: 15,9 billion remain to be found for next year, 21 billion for 2016 and 25,6 billion for 2017. This was written by the Centro Studi di Confindustria in the latest Economic Scenarios, underlining that "these are substantial sums that the spending cuts indicated in the spending review (17 billion in 2015 and 3 in 2016), net of those already approved, are not, for the next year, enough to cover.” According to the CSC "the risk of more traditional hedging is therefore high", such as tax increases or linear cuts.
GDP
Confindustria analysts agree with the forecasts on the economic trend the numbers published yesterday by the OECD on the trend of GDP in 2014 (-0,4%), but they are more optimistic for 2015 (+0,5%, against the +0,1% estimated by the Organization). However, these are downward revisions compared to the numbers calculated in June, +0,2% and +1% respectively.
With the decline in 2014, "the Italian economy - observe the economists of via dell'Astronomia - records the third consecutive decline, albeit much more contained than the previous two". The unexpected drop in GDP in the second quarter (-0,2% in the quarter) has forced the CSC, in the latest Economic Scenarios, to revise its estimates for this year downwards. Furthermore, according to the new forecasts, the next two quarters of 2014 will record new declines (-0,2% in both the third and fourth).
In April's Def, the government estimated a GDP of +0,8% this year and +1,3% next year. The CSC is aiming for a return to growth in Italy's GDP from the first quarter of 2015 and at quarterly growth rates of 1,2% annualised. The recovery next year will be supported by several factors: the acceleration of international trade, the positive impact deriving from Expo 2015, the more favorable exchange rate, the persistence of the large output gap, the easing of the credit crunch, the reduction in the cost of money, the delayed effect of some government measures and the easing of geopolitical tensions, above all between Russia and Ukraine.
DEFICIT
The estimates also worsen for the deficit, which however remains within the limits imposed by European constraints both this year and next: 3% of GDP in 2014 and 2,9% in 2015. The worsening of the deficit compared to the June forecast of economists in viale dell'Astronomia (2,9% of GDP this year and 2,5% next) is explained by "a significantly lower dynamics of nominal GDP" than previously estimated.
INFLATION
As for inflation, it will settle at +0,3% in 2014 (from +1,2% in 2013) and +0,5% in 2015. In June, the CSC estimates were +0,5% and +0,9 .XNUMX%. According to the CSC, a total dynamics of prices "for the first time with a negative sign and consumers' expectations of further reductions make the risk of deflation high", but "the materialization of a lasting and generalized process of reduction of of prices in Italy".
WORK
On the employment front, Confindustria states that today there are 7,8 million people who are totally or partially unemployed. To the approximately 3 million and 200 thousand unemployed estimated in the second quarter of 2014 (+83% compared to six years earlier) we must add two other groups of total or partial jobless: the involuntary part-time workers (2 million and 661 thousand, +87,6, 1%) and the non-employed who would be available to work but have not carried out active research actions because they are discouraged (616 million 56,6 thousand individuals, +609%) or because they are waiting for the outcome of past research actions (87,7 thousand, +7,8%) +XNUMX%). In total, "there are XNUMX million people who, in one way or another, lack work".
CONSUMPTION
According to Viale dell'Astronomia, spending by Italian families, after having decreased for three consecutive years (-6,9% the cumulative decrease between 2010 and 2013), will record a small increase in 2014 (+0,1%) and will accelerate in 2015 (+0,5%). The drop in consumption is now 7,8% compared to the third quarter of 2007, the pre-crisis peak, almost all of which occurred starting from 2011, and now "it is probable that the recovery in consumption will continue also in the third quarter, albeit slowly" .
LOANS
The scenario also improves in terms of the credit crunch, which is easing, even if many companies still have difficulties in accessing bank financing. In July, according to CSC data, loans increased by 0,2%, after having remained unchanged in June. The average rate of fall in the first five months of 2014 was -0,2%, compared to -0,4% between September 2011 and December 2013. The stock of loans remains 11% below its 2011 peak ( -101 billion euro) and "there are still many companies that do not obtain the loans requested": 13,1% in manufacturing in August, up from 15,6% at the beginning of the year (6,9% in the first half of 2011) . In most cases it is the bank that denies the credit (87%). In fact, the percentage of companies that renounce an offer that is too onerous has decreased (13%, from 26% in May).
"ACT NOW, ITALY RISKS SINKING"
In short, Italy is still in recession and risks sinking: it is therefore "urgent to act" immediately, with the Stability Law, because the already weak economic picture is now in "worrying deterioration - concludes the Confindustria Study Center - . We can and must react promptly with measures to boost competitiveness and investment: the results would come quickly. Rather than a return to recession (a statement that cannot be faulted from a statistical point of view) we should talk about its continuation, albeit less intense than what happened from the end of 2011 to mid-2013”. And among the structural reforms of the labor market, the most important is that of labour, which is "the fulcrum of economic reforms, in various aspects: flexibility, simplification of procedures, shock absorbers against the risk of unemployment, tax-contribution wedge, dynamics salary, training".
