Reforms are not a short sprint à la Usain Bolt, but a long marathon. They are not an isolated and episodic act, to be carried out in a suspended time in the party arena, to be entrusted to a valiant and valiant first aid team. They can't be a parenthesis to start all over again. And to put it like Angela Merkel, at least in this it is difficult to blame her, "there is never one last reform and in a rapidly changing world we have to adapt". Luca Paolazzi, director of the Confindustria Study Center, speaks clearly at the "Cambia Italia" conference: reforms are necessary and the most difficult task is precisely that of creating the conditions in politics so that there is "healthy competition between parties, between opposing alignments but without delegitimization and within the framework of a shared and rooted culture of reforms”.
TRIPLE GROWTH BY 2030
From his the strength of the figures and the numbers which, he specifies, are not forecasts, but trends and objectives: Italy is at a crossroads not only economically, explains Paolazzi, if it remains inert it will remain nailed to an inadequate growth of 0,7% per year between now and 2030 (+16% cumulative), if it reacts "with vigour, determination, cohesion", transforming competitive disadvantages into levers for development, it can triple to 2,2% per year (+55% cumulative). In absolute values, the choice translates into enormous differences: without changes, GDP in 2030 will be 253 billion higher than today, i.e. 2.760 euros per capita, while with the reforms it could increase by 872 billion, 11.160 more per capita.
"We don't know what the world will be like in twenty years' time – says Paolazzi – but we must do our part, whatever is needed to close the gap between us and the other countries”. To return to growth at a sustained pace, the gap with other countries must be closed in terms of productivity and hours worked. The levers? Knowledge, competition, bureaucracy, participation in work. Yes, because for the world as a whole the crisis that began in 2007 is no worse than that of '29. But for Italy it is. The lack of reforms especially penalizes the young and less educated, which causes brain drain.
THE BIG BANG
The way forward is that of the Big Bang. Four reasons for Paolazzi: he responds to the criterion of fairness, because no interest group is privileged; each group compensates its costs with the benefits received in other fields and therefore responds to an efficiency criterion; the change is so profound that going back becomes (almost impossible); complementarities and synergies are created.
POLITICS ADDRESS THE ABNORMAL KNOTS OF DIVERGENCE
It is up to politics to address some "anomalous issues that have led the country to diverge for so many years": the micro-corporate society, allergic to the state, which leads to anarchy of demands; party fragmentation, which cultivates particular, if not personal, interests; the deteriorated public apparatus; the anti-meritocratic and familistic culture.
With some recommendations for a long road and without magic potion: supporting the formation of cohesive majorities, with electoral reform and anti-transformation parliamentary rules; make government action more effective with parliamentary procedures on constructive trust, overcoming perfect bicameralism, appointing and dismissing ministers; simplify the state, with less direct interference and greater regulatory effectiveness, making the review of public spending systematic and putting an end to the exchange between taxpayers' consent and resources.
“Capturing this fleeting moment?” Paolazzi asks herself in the end. Yes, we must.
To learn more about Paolazzi's speech, click here.
