In the face of one more buoyant domestic demand compared to the summer data, the Italian economy is still struggling to gain momentum, particularly weighed down by the disappointing data for the third quarter. This is the panorama described by the report on the flash situation of the Confindustria study center which, however, awaits an expansive push from the stability law for 2016.
The report on the economic situation shows that in the global economic scenario numerous nudes are gathering. The slowdown in emerging countries affects estimates for world trade, the fear arising from terrorist attacks modifies government spending plans, and tensions in Syria are certainly not helping the European economy.
However – underlines Confindustria – strongly expansive impulses remain prevalent for some time now, which have indeed been strengthened through a further drop in the price of oil and the further decline in the euro exchange rate. The biggest pitfall for the world economy remains the deflation: 24 countries record negative annual changes in consumer prices, against 2 in 2014. The deflation weakens the action of monetary policy, aggravates the burden of debts and induces the postponement of purchases.
The large unused production capacity and the general fall in the prices of raw materials continue to push the inflation dynamics down. This will keep interest rates low for a long time, even in the USA where the FED is about to raise rates and justify further easing by the ECB.
Going more specifically, the report provides a new acceleration of eurozone GDP after the slight slowdown in the third quarter. Indeed, in November the composite PMI index signals a further expansion of activity in Europe and is compatible with growth of GDP equal to +0,4%/+0,5% on the end of 2015. However, deflationary pressures remain: companies cut prices for the second consecutive month.
Low inflation and the slow but gradual decline in unemployment (-1,2 million in one year in September) will continue to support consumption and strengthen the confidence of European households. Weighs, however, the unknown factor of the economic consequences of terrorist war.
In Italy, the GDP it rose in the summer for the third consecutive quarter, albeit at an attenuated pace: +0,2% in the quarter, after +0,3% in the second and +0,4% in the January-April period. The variation acquired for 2015 is +0,6%.
THEindustrial activity – recalls Confindustria - it rose by 0,4% in October, after +0,2% in September, bringing the change acquired in the fourth quarter to +0,4%. The component orders of the manufacturing PMI signals robust expansion: +1,4 points from September to 55,3, thanks to both foreign and domestic demand, the latter driven above all by consumption. The production expectations are more favourable, and anticipate a more lively business trend by the end of the year.
In September the Italian exports they increased by 1,7% at constant prices on August, thanks to the partial rebound of extra-EU sales (+5,3% after -7,9%) while those in EU countries decreased by 1%. The third quarter recorded a 1,5% reduction compared to the second, with a stagnation of exports to the EU and a collapse of that to non-EU countries. Positive signals also coming from orders: the relative PMI component rose to 55,8 from 55,3 in October.
