Income has been at a standstill for twenty years and the middle class is increasingly poor. Since 2007, the average per capita household income has fallen back to 1993 levels. Indeed, it has even fallen: -0,6% in real terms between 1993 and 2011. In the last ten years, net financial wealth has gone from 26 thousand to 15.600 euros per family, with a reduction of 40,5%. Conversely, the share of households with a net wealth of more than 500 euros practically doubled, going from 6% to 12,5%. The wealth of the middle class (ie families with assets, including real estate and movable assets, between 50 and 500 euros) decreased from 66,4% to 48,3%. This is what emerges from the 2012 Censis report on the country's social situation.
The average income of Italians is reduced "due to the difficult transition of the economy, but also due to the profound changes in our social structure, which have weakened the proverbial ability of families to produce income and accumulate wealth", observes Censis. In the last twenty years the net wealth of households has increased by 65,4% thanks above all to the increase in the value of the properties owned (+79,2%). Income, on the other hand, has not changed: in the 90s the average per capita income of families increased, going from about 17.500 to 18.500 euros, it remained stable in the first half of the 2000s, but then starting from 2007 dropped to 1993 levels.
There has been a "shift of wealth towards the older components of the population", warns Censis. If in 1991 households headed by families under the age of 35 held 17,1% of total household wealth, in 2010 their share dropped to 5,2%. A further element that determines the reduction of the average income is the significant share of immigrant families (6,6% of the total), 45,1% with an income of less than 15 euros per year.
30 ENTERPRISES LOST SINCE 2009, COOPS GROW
Manufacturing and commerce in crisis, coop in progress. Again according to Censis, the manufacturing sector has undergone a shrinking of the production base, with 30.023 fewer companies between 2009 and today (-4,7%). And on the trade front, the situation is no better: in the first half of 2012 the balance remains negative: -24.390 businesses.
"However, an ongoing repositioning process emerges", warns Censis. Italian export flows have partially changed, moving towards emerging economies: between 2007 and today, the share of exports to the European Union has decreased from 61% to 56%, while that towards the main emerging areas has increased 21% to 27%. China currently absorbs 2,7% of our exports, Russia 2,5% and the countries of North Africa 2,9%.
In trade with foreign countries, the weight of Made in Italy has decreased (textiles, clothing-fashion, food, furniture-furniture), but the penetration of other manufacturing specializations has increased, such as metallurgy, chemistry and pharmaceuticals. The number of exporting companies has decreased (from the maximum peak of 206.800 units in 2006 to 205.302 in 2011), but investments in shareholdings abroad are increasing, which today exceed 27 thousand units (in 2005 it was 21.740).
From 2008 to today, the commercial structures that have closed have been more than 446, compared to just over 319 new openings. But other production segments show signs of growth: the expansion of organized distribution structures continues (from 17.804 in 2009 to 18.978 in 2011) and web, TV and remote commerce operators (from 29.163 to 32.718).
The system of cooperative enterprises instead grew by 14% between 2001 and 2011, settling at just over 79.900 units and proving to still be able to generate employment (+8% of employees between 2007 and 2011, against - 1,2% of employed people in Italy, and +2,8% also in the first nine months of 2012).
REAL ESTATE MARKET, SALES HALF IN 6 YEARS
As for the real estate market, according to Censis, at the end of 2012 sales will be halved compared to six years ago, to 485 units. Thus we will return to the values prior to those of the expansive cycle, which reached a peak of 2006 sales in 870. In the period 2008-2011 the number of mortgages for the purchase of homes decreased by more than 20% compared to the four-year period 2004-2007.
In the first half of 2012, the demand for mortgages recorded a further contraction of 44% compared to the same period of 2011. However, 907 families intend to buy a house in 2012: they were 1,4 million in 2001, then they fell to around 1 million in 2007 and the final balance for 2011 was 925 thousand. In 2011, 65,2% of families managed to make the purchase, but this year they will drop to 53,5% (45,7% in the provincial capitals).
Buyers are mostly already owners (8 out of 10). Two thirds are families with two income earners, 61% belonging to the middle class, 26% in the high income bracket, 13% with medium income.
