La resident population in Italy not only is it decreasing but it is getting older: fewer and fewer children are born and the balance between "income" and outgoing also becomes negative. This is the result of the latest edition of Istat census survey of Population and Housing, carried out in autumn 2021, elaborated by Istat. As at 31 December 2021, Italian residents amounted to 59.030.133, down by 0,3% compared to 2020. But there is also “good” news: the women represent 51,2% of the resident population (exceeding men by 1.392.221 units), the illiterate (from 1,1% to 0,5%) and i graduates (11,2% to 15%).
However, the picture remains worrying. Let's see in detail the main data of the Census permanent record of Population and Housing 2021 of Istat.
Istat 2021 census: the Italian population is still decreasing
As at 31 December 2021, the population in Italy numbered 59.030.133 residents, down by 0,3% compared to 2020 (-206.080 individuals). This reduction affects in particular the Centro (-0,5%) and the North part (-0,4% in both breakdowns) while it is more contained in Southand (-0,2%) and minimum in Islands (where the decrease in the resident population is just 3 units).
The decline in the resident population is largely attributable to the decrease in the component foreign. The foreigners surveyed are 5.030.716 (-141.178 compared to 2020), with an incidence on the total population of 8,5 foreigners for every 100 surveyed.
Istat census: new minimum birth record
The direct and indirect consequences of the Covid-19 epidemic on the demographic dynamics observed in 2020 (between the dramatic excess of mortality and the sharp contraction of migratory flows), during 2021 the recessive effects due to the decline in births which reach a new all-time low: just 400.249 thousand, a decrease of 1,1% compared to 2020 and almost 31% compared to 2008, the most recent golden year in terms of births. At the territorial level, births show “a generalized decline in almost all areas, with the highest values at South (-2,7%) and a single exception in Northeast where a slight increase was recorded (+0,1% on 2020). While the Autonomous Province of Bolzano it is characterized by a higher than average birth rate (+193 units).
The new minimum record for births and the high number of deaths (701) aggravate the negative natural dynamics that have characterized our country in the last decade. The natural balance, equal to -301 thousand units in 2021; added to the -335 thousand already recorded in 2020, it results in a deficit of "natural replacement" of 637 thousand people in two years of the pandemic.
The percentage of municipalities that are depopulated is decreasing, the small municipalities "keep".
Out of 7.904 municipalities, only 2.850 recorded an increase in population over the previous year, where around 17 million 600 thousand people reside, 29,9% of the population in 2021. Compared to 2020, the percentage of municipalities which are depopulating (61,8% of the total against 73,6% in 2020).
The decrease in population does not equally affect all municipal classes of demographic size. The lowest percentages of municipalities with a declining population are recorded in the class of 5-20 thousand inhabitants (57,3%) and in the class of up to 5 thousand inhabitants (62,7%), which together represent as much as 70% of Italian municipalities. On the contrary, among the 44 municipalities with over 100 thousand inhabitants, only 5 gain population (there were 11 between 2019 and 2020) while for the remaining 39 the balance is negative compared to the 20203 Census115.813, for a total of -2020 residents. As in 2021, also in XNUMX Roma it is the largest municipality with 2.749.031 residents, e Mortlake (in the province of Lecco) the smallest one (with just 31 inhabitants).
Foreign population in decline
The decline in population can also be attributed to the decrease in the foreign population. The foreigners surveyed are 5.030.716 (-141.178 compared to 2020), with an incidence on the total population of 8,5 foreigners for every 100 surveyed. Almost half of the foreigners surveyed in 2021 come fromEurope (47,7%), 22,6% fromAfrica, a slightly lower percentage fromAsia and 7,3% fromAmerica. The European Union is the most represented area (27,6%), followed byCentral Eastern Europe (19,3%), theNorth Africa (13,6%) and theSouth Central Asia (11,6%).
The North is the most attractive area for foreigners
59% of the foreign population surveyed (2 million 973 thousand) is concentrated in Northern Italy: il Northwest, with over a third of non-Italian citizens surveyed, is the most attractive area. The Center of Italy welcomes 25% of foreigners taken over (1 million 241 thousand) and the South and Islands11,6% and 4,6%, respectively. In comparison with 2020, the regions that recorded the greatest decline are Lombardia (-35 thousand), Tuscany (about -19 thousand), Lazio (-17 thousand) e Veneto (-16 thousand). In reverse, Calabria, Puglia e Basilicata, even if to a very small extent, are the only ones to record an increase in foreigners.
Confirmed the female prevalence in the resident population in Italy
Also in 2021 the slight prevalence of women which, exceeding men by 1.392.221 units, represent 51,2% of the resident population. The masculinity ratio is therefore equal to 95,4 men for every 100 women. As in 2020, the highest masculinity ratio is recorded in Trentino Alto Adige (97,7), the lowest one in Liguria (92,6), which however is also the region with the highest old age index (267,2).
If in general the masculinity ratio is less than 100, in about a third of the municipalities (against 23,5% in 2011) it is instead unbalanced in favor of men.
Italy increasingly "old"
The age structure is also confirmed in 2021 as highly unbalanced: the Italian population is growing elderly. Compared to the previous year, for both genders the percentage weight of the younger classes slightly decreased, in particular those aged 0-4 and 5-9, but also those aged 40-44 and 45-49. On the other hand, the incidence of the 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69 and 75-79 age groups increases slightly. Consequently, the average age also rises slightly, going from 45,9 to 46,2 years, albeit with a certain variability in the geography of ageing. There Campania, with an average age of 43,6 years, continues to be the youngest region and the Liguria, with an average age of 49,4 years, is confirmed as the oldest.
In the same way, theold age index (ratio between the percentage of the population aged 65 and over and that aged 0-14) which stands at 187,6 from 182,6 in 2020 (179,3 in 2011). Also in this case the lowest values are recorded in Campania (143,6) and Trentino Alto Adige (147) while the highest value is that of Liguria (267,2)
The phenomenon of aging therefore seems to show some first signs even among the non-Italian population, which however remains much younger than the national one. The difference emerges clearly by comparing the pyramids of age of foreigners and Italians: that of foreigners has a broad base (where the population under the age of 10 is located), a large central body (30-49 years) and a very narrow top (+60 years).
Illiterates halved and graduates increase
In the last 10 years they have halved illiterate, people who can read and write but have not completed a regular course of study, the number of people who have not continued their studies after the first cycle of primary school has decreased and, at the same time, the number of graduates has increased (from 11,2 % to 15,0%) and PhDs (from 0,3% to 0,5%). At the territorial level, graduates are 17,2% al Centro, 15,3% al Northwest, 14,9% al Northeast, 13,8% in the south and 13% in Islands. While the highest shares of low educational qualifications are found in the South.
With 19,1%, Lazio is the region with the highest incidence of graduates and research doctorates (0,8%) which is contrasted by Puglia (12,9% and 0,3%), equal to Valle d'Aosta, Campania,Basilicata, Calabria e Sicilia. The large municipalities, with over 250 residents, continue to be a pole of attraction for the more educated: the share of graduates records a peak (29,1%) in Milano e Bologna, which have gained 2011 percentage points since 6. More contained, but above the national average of 15%, the incidence of graduates a Palermo, Napoli e Catania, which have grown between 2,5 and 3,2 percentage points in the last decade.
