Western Europe is once again the preferred target in which to invest, chosen by 71% of those interviewed, significantly up from 45% in 2013. Investor interest in Spain and Italy, confirmed by the volume of investments more than doubled in 2013 compared to 2012, it remains strong in 2014 as well. In fact, especially Spain, it ranks third in the ranking of preferred markets, with 19% of investors wanting to invest in 2014 mainly in the Madrid and Barcelona markets. Italy, with almost 5% of preferences (and in 7th place in the ranking), compared to past years shows a significant improvement, with the number of interested investors more than doubled compared to the surveys of previous years.
The United Kingdom was confirmed as the preferred market also in 2014, with 29% of preferences, followed by Germany with 21% which, however, marks a marked decrease in interest compared to 2013 (35%); even France, Poland and the Northern European countries lose their appeal compared to 2013.
“This year, Italy's result confirms the return of international investors' interest in the Italian market – declares Alessandro Mazzanti, CEO of CBRE Italia -. In 2011 less than 1% of investors indicated our country as a target for investing and in other years it has never exceeded 3%. Of course, Spain is a market that has always shown higher interest rates than Italy – continues Mazzanti – even in previous surveys, regardless of the country's fundamentals which are less solid than ours. And this thanks to a regulatory framework and greater transparency that facilitates the penetration of foreign investors. The result for Italy, on the other hand, concludes the CEO – demonstrates that we have a window of opportunity and that we cannot miss this moment. Compared to Spain, our country suffers from the political delay in the definition of decisive reforms that boost employment, favor the recovery in the activity of small and medium-sized enterprises and contribute to the concrete reduction of public debt. The lack of product compared to Spain is another factor that keeps investors away from Italy”.
The sector preferred by investors for 2014 is that of offices, with 39% of responses (29% in 2013), followed by logistics, which loses its appeal slightly, going from 20% in 2013 to 16% in 2014. The greater the contraction in the interest of shopping centers which are indicated as attractive by 11% of investors (17% in 2013).
The further shift of investors in the risk curve continues in 2014: two out of three of the interviewees answered that they have greater interest in assets other than the core/prime ones; in particular, 33% of the interviewees find secondary assets, the good secondary, interesting (25% in 2013); this is in line with the newfound perception of an economic recovery that will translate into an improvement in secondary assets in the future. However, the interest in core assets and core markets remains for 35% of those interviewed (it was 42% in 2013) but a growing number of investors believe that they are overpriced.
After two years in which macroeconomic factors represented the greatest brake on real estate investment (fear of the Euro crisis in 2012 and fear of recession in 2013), today, the greatest risk identified by investors returns to the real estate sphere: lack of product, pricing – values that are heating up again in some markets – and competition between investors. Among the other threats that could reduce the expansion of investments, the effects of the tapering started in the United States and the expected increase in interest rates together with the fear of the continuation of austerity policies in many countries are the ones most feared by investors .
The difficulty in finding debt for real estate transactions, perceived as a brake on investment activity by only 7% of those interviewed, has almost disappeared from the list of threats. “If the expected economic growth does not confirm expectations, this could represent a further threat to the expansion of real estate investments, especially for Italy” concludes Mazzanti.
