The eagerly awaited elections in Catalonia gave victory to the three pro-independence parties who have garnered the majority, albeit by a small margin. However, the party with the most votes was the centrist party of Ciudadanos led by Ines Arrimadas (25,4% of the votes and 37 seats) which however failed to lead the entire unionist line to victory.
OTHER SUGGESTION BY THE COURT
Meanwhile, new bad news arrives for the separatist leaders on the justice front: the Spanish Supreme Court has declared other Catalan leaders under investigation for alleged rebellion, including ex-president Artur Mas and ERC leaders Marta Rovira, PdeCat, Marta Pascal and Cup, Anna Gabriel. President Carles Puigdemont, his members of the Government and the president of the Parliament Carme Forcadell have already been indicted for the same alleged crime. They risk 30 years in prison for carrying out the political project of independence.
THE COMMENT OF CIUDADANOS
It is hard “to put up with an illegal separatism, which claimed to wrest Catalonia from Spain, depriving those who do not think like them of freedom and rights. We weren't tough, but the PP was soft, which for 35 years built its power in Madrid by coming to terms with the nationalists and giving them what they wanted. When you spend three decades giving space to those who try to fill it all, you end up finding yourself out. And that's what happened. In Catalonia there is no more Spain”. he commented Alberto Rivera, leader of Ciudadanos.
THE WORDS OF CARLES PUIGDEMONT
From Brussels come the words of Carles Puigdemont, who does not mince words during his press conference: "Rajoy failed." The former Catalan president continued: “I wish Spain would no longer make decisions for us. The time has come for real politics, Rajoy's formula has failed and he has shown that the Catalans are cohesive ”.
Then the opening: Puigdemont has declared his willingness to meet Rajoy, but outside the Spanish borders (should he return to Spain he would be immediately arrested, ed.). An appeal also to the EU Commission: "Listen to the Spanish government, but we too have the right to be heard".
“Starting tomorrow, Article 155 will have to be suspended. Politics must return, Rajoy must return to politics". "Europe must take note: if Rajoy continues to apply the same recipe he will always obtain the same results: either he changes the recipe or we will change countries faster than what we have already proposed".
THE RESULTS OF THE ELECTION
What weighed on the final outcome of the vote was the collapse of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's Popolari, dropped from 11 to 3 seats. The socialists are also down, with 17 deputies.
The three pro-independence political forces (JUNTSxCat, Erc-CatSì and Cup) managed to win the absolute majority of seats, 70 of 135, but not of the votes, stopping at 47,5%. In detail, Junts per Catalunya achieved 21,6% of the votes and 34 deputies, Erc, the party of former vice president Oriol Junqueras currently in prison, 21,4% and 32 seats. The Cup instead snatched 4 seats.
Very high turnout: 81,94 percent, seven points more than in 2015.
THE FUTURE OF CATALONIA
From abroad the former Catalan president Puigdemont exults who immediately commented: "It is an unequivocal victory: the Spanish state has been defeated". But, if he returns to Catalonia, Puigdemont would risk arrest under Spanish law because the previous declaration of independence is considered "illegal" and "unconstitutional".
After the vote it will be necessary to see how the separatists will decide to move: that is, if they insist on an intransigent line or if they agree to proceed gradually by starting negotiations with the Government of Madrid to acquire more autonomy like other regions but not absolute independence.
Meanwhile, the Cup has made it known that, in the event that the other separatist leaders abandon the will to continue on the path of the Republic, they will abandon the "governing coalition". In other words, the separatists would no longer have a majority.
Rajoy, who will have to deal with the negative backlash from the collapse of his party in Catalonia, has warned independence activists that nothing will change and that in Barcelona and throughout the region the Government of Madrid will continue to govern until there is a complete and definitive renunciation of independence, because this is what the Constitution wants and because independentists cannot govern against Spanish law.
The European Union was also very clear and immediately warned the separatists of independence: “Nothing changes and there is no place for independent Catalonia in Europe”.
THE NEXT STEPS
From a technical point of view, the constitutive session of the Catalan assembly must be held by 23 January, while the first round of the election of the President will be on February 10th. If by April it has not been possible to elect the new president, it will go off the rails the automatic dissolution of the assembly with new elections at the end of May. Mariano Rajoy's reaction is awaited. What needs to be seen is whether the Spanish Prime Minister will accept, as he had promised, to restore full political and institutional autonomy to Catalonia.
THE MARKETS
Interesting to watch too the response of the markets who trusted in a recovery by the unionists to revive the economy of Catalonia from which thousands of companies have fled fearing the effects of a ruinous conflict between Barcelona and Madrid. At 12.30, the Stock Exchange drops 1,07%.
THE WORDS OF RAJOY
The Spanish prime minister commented on the outcome of the Catalan elections as follows: "The Spanish government intends to offer all its cooperation and will for constructive, open and realistic dialogue to the government that will be formed in Catalonia to solve the problems of the Catalans".
To those who asked him whether new general elections were possible in Spain after the defeat in Catalonia, and in particular that of his party, the Popular Party, Rajoy replied that he has no intention of calling early elections before the natural deadline of 2020 and that the government is doing well as evidenced by the recovery of the economy and employment.
Rajoy then closed the doors to a possible dialogue with Carles Puigdemont: "I will sit at the table with whoever won the elections, Ines Arrimadas"
