Le words pronounced yesterday in Parliament by the President of the Catalan Generalitat, Carles Puigdemont have caused a sort of paradox: independence was proclaimed, but Catalonia moved further away from secession. And not only because the Governor has asked the Barcelona Parliament to suspend the effects of the declaration in order to open new negotiations with Madrid, but above all because he has given Mariano Rajoy a valid reason to act and use all the legislative means necessary to appease any secessionist ambitions of the Catalan leaders. On the other hand, the Prime Minister had warned him: if Puigdemont had even dared to utter the word "independence", Moncloa would have reacted vehemently.
Despite the solemnity that the leader of "Junts Pel Sì" tried to give to his speech, the facts at the moment say something else: the declaration of independence pronounced yesterday has no legal validity just as the foundations on which it is based do not have it: that is to say a referendum that the Spanish government and judges have repeatedly reiterated as devoid of any legislative and constitutional value. Those numbers that independence activists cite as proof of the success of the referendum actually testify that, despite the Yes having won with 90,18% of the votes, only 38% of those entitled (just over two million people out of a total of 7,5 .XNUMX million) went to vote, a figure that would not have been enough even if the consultation had been legitimate.
Mariano Rajoy, while having heavy responsibility for the explosion of the Catalan crisis, now seems to have the upper hand and aware of this, will appear today in front of Congress of Deputies to formalize the Government's reaction. But first, at 9.00, an extraordinary meeting of the Council of Ministers will be held.
From his not only last Sunday's demonstrations that reinvigorated the unionist cause and the law, but also and above all the first economic upheavals that the desire for Catalan independence is causing. The secessionist threat threatens to bring not only Barcelona to its knees, but also Madrid (and the effects on the Stock Exchange are already there for all to see). Warnings about the risks to the economy of the entire country are raining down from everywhere, while companies and banks continue to leave Catalonia in search of a safer port. Since October 1, many large companies have moved their registered offices to other cities in Spain to save themselves from instability and the consequences of a declaration of independence. As he explains El Pais: “Six of the seven Catalan companies listed on the Spanish stock exchange have already decided to emigrate, including the two largest banks: Caixabank and Sabadell. Two important wineries strongly linked to Catalonia, Freixenet and Codorniù, are thinking of leaving”. A real exodus that could undermine the economic hegemony built up over the last few decades on which Barcelona has built part of its will for independence: a single region which alone is worth 20% of Spain's GDP and 23% of production industrial.
Without counting the opposition expressed by all the most important European leaders, who over the last few days have unanimously hoped for a solution shared by both sides, reiterating however that there is no room in Europe for the Republic of Catalonia and that the EU continues to have a single interlocutor in the context of the crisis, namely the Spanish Government.
What will happen now? Although there are many who wish for a peaceful solution which could on the one hand avert the separation of Catalonia from Spain and on the other grant Barcelona that part of autonomy (fiscal and economic) that he has been asking for for years, at the moment it seems that Rajoy is still determined to continue on the "hard line".
At this point, therefore, the prospect of applying the now elusive seems to be getting closer and closer article 155 of the Constitution which allows the Government to suspend Catalan autonomy and its president, giving de facto control of the entire region to Madrid. Not only that, on the basis of the provisions, the Barcelona parliament could also be dissolved and early elections called. The article has never been implemented in Spanish history and could have very serious effects on the future of relations between the region and the central state.
Puigdemont even risks prison and the precedents are not on his side: in 1934 his counterpart Lluis Companys proclaimed the "Catalan republic". It lasted 11 hours. Then the army arrived and arrested, tried and sentenced the secessionist leader to 30 years in prison. The Francoists shot him in 1940.
The President of the Generalitat, together with his ministers, is already under investigation for disobedience, abuse of power and alleged embezzlement due to the calling of the referendum and risks being indicted for "rebellion".
Rajoy, for his part, must proceed with caution, however. The eyes of the world are on him and new images of violence in Catalonia could undermine the unionist cause, despite the legality on which it is founded.
