Localisms and regionalisms have always been characteristic features of the European Union, in a unicum of heterogeneity, plurality of languages, religions, ethnic groups and cultures. The pro-independence pushes, such as the one registered in Catalonia, are therefore not a new phenomenon; on the contrary, the central government in Madrid has been trying to contain them for some time.
A story of rigidity and misunderstandings
Already in 2006 Mariano Rajoy's party had appealed to the Constitutional Court to reduce the autonomy of the region, which on the contrary wanted more independence from Madrid. Following the economic crisis that threatened to paralyze the region, Madrid's refusal to allocate more funds led then-Catalan president Artur Mas to launch a campaign for independence.
In 2014, during a non-referendum consultation – unofficial and non-binding – 1,8 million people supported the independence of the Catalan Autonomous Community. Subsequently, in 2015, the parties Junts pel Sí (Jxs) and Candidatura d'Unitat popular (Cup) had obtained respectively 39,5% and 8,2% of the votes precisely with an electoral campaign in favor of independence , which today seems to be supported by 80% of the population.
Strengthened by these assumptions, the decision of the President of the Region Carles Puigdemont to hold a referendum for independence set for 1 October 2017 has unleashed a harsh reaction from the Spanish central government. The plebiscite being unconstitutional, the government attempted to block it, first by threatening and then by actually carrying out arrests and searches of Catalan government offices and departments. The latter decision risks inflaming both Catalan and Spanish nationalist spirits even more and which could push Puigdemont to declare the unilateral independence of Catalonia from Spain in the event that the majority of citizens vote in favor of secession.
The Spanish political crisis in a degenerative European context
However, the political crisis that Spain is experiencing must be traced back to a broader framework, which in part ignores the Spanish national borders and is placed in a general European degenerative process. After the political elections in Germany, which confirm the alarming trend of the return of the extreme right in the European national parliaments, Catalan independence could cause a domino effect. This, at a time when the Union is already having to face the difficult Brexit negotiations, while trying at the same time to get out of a political and economic stagnation that has been going on for years and to relaunch a European ideal for a common project.
The role and constraints of the EU
In the Spanish political crisis, the European Union is an actor that can and must therefore play an important role. On the one hand, having guaranteed localism and respect for different cultures and religions, in a melting pot that has always characterized it, the EU now finds itself called upon to defend the rights of Catalans, who rely on the concept of European cosmopolitanism to relaunch the legitimacy of its request for independence. On the other hand, it is not the task of the European institutions to intervene in Spain. According to the principle of subsidiarity, it is in fact the Spanish Government which has to manage the crisis.
Furthermore, while the self-determination of peoples remains a fundamental principle of international law, there is no European provision addressing the disintegration of a member state. On the contrary, a possible Catalan secession would contradict the much debated fundamental principle of "an ever closer union", understood as a community of states that cooperate in a more stringent manner until reaching a Union in a political key.
EU membership's weapon of deterrence
The only weapon in the hands of the Union therefore remains the deterrent of membership. As in the Scottish case, Juncker has repeatedly stated that in the event that Catalonia proclaims itself independent, it will have to apply for membership like any country outside the Union. Of course, Catalonia's chances would be almost nil, given that Spain could veto it.
The question therefore remains whether membership is an effective deterrent, as was partly revealed in the Scottish referendum of 2014 (which, unlike the Catalan consultation, had been "granted" by the central government). Although the trend of Euroscepticism is decreasing – thanks also to the political chaos into which Great Britain seems to have plunged following Brexit -, it is not enough that 56% of citizens are pro-European, as indicated by Eurobarometer data, for restore legitimacy to the Union, if the absolute majority believes that the common political choices are wrong.
Indeed, precisely in the face of the entry of nationalist parties into numerous national parliaments, now more than ever concrete European actions are needed to face independence and nationalist impulses that attempt to reflect a social unease that has deep roots. While the crises afflicting all European citizens relate to problems of security, migratory waves and social welfare, the area where the Union has the greatest potential for action is precisely the economic one, where a growing integration has in fact been achieved .
The economic factor is important, but not exhaustive
Indeed, if it is true that the economic crisis has sharpened independence sentiment in Catalonia, it is also true that in 2016 the European Union recorded growth in GDP and in the employment rate. However, there is still no fear of a fair redistribution of the benefits of this growth. The different economic performances and the resulting benefits differ not only between member countries, but also between the citizens themselves, widening the gap between rich and poor ever more. Similarly, alongside more job opportunities, there seems to be less and less social guarantees, unemployment benefits, wage standards and labor rights. If the economic crisis has given rise to the breach of Catalan independence, greater social and economic well-being in a European context could reduce these pressures, not only in Catalonia but also in many other European regions and states.
In his recent speech on the state of the European Union, Juncker expressed the need for a substantial relaunch, which carries forward a common vision and which responds to citizens' needs through the creation of social guarantees. It will then be necessary to see if this wave of optimism leads to concrete responses from the Member States. At the moment, the Catalan referendum, in addition to demonstrating how strong the spirit of independence is, could also answer the question of how important membership is in the eyes of citizens.
