October 10 could represent a decisive turning point for the future of Spanish geopolitical relations. After the referendum for independence on October XNUMXst, clashes have followed in recent days to the sound of declarations, protests, demonstrations for and against the definitive separation from the central government in Madrid. But today, in front of the Catalan Parliament, President Puigdemont speaks: he will report on the results of the referendum, but then what? Will he stop there or will he unilaterally proclaim the independence of Catalonia, paving the way for the very harsh reaction of the Madrid government, which will do everything to prevent it?
In recent days, the Catalan people have made themselves heard, not showing the unity that Carles Puigdemont - President of Catalonia - and the other pro-independence political leaders expected. And that matters.
Election day resulted in a clash between the central government, which deployed the police forces to oppose what is still today considered an illegal vote, and the Catalan government, which used any means at its disposal to allow the people to express their opinion. But only 43,03% of those entitled to vote (that is, less than half) turned up, and the Yes voters received 92% of the votes. Were there controls and democratic guarantees? For Prime Minister Rajoy that vote was and remains "illegal and unconstitutional".
Perhaps it was precisely the data on the turnout that helped to curb the wave of enthusiasm of the Yes movement and to make people think. The majority of the Catalan population did not vote, many also for fear of the clashes that took place at some polling stations in Barcelona.
In Catalonia there is also a large part of the population that has forcefully rejected the hypothesis of a possible separation from the government in Madrid. Nearly one million people, two days after the consultation, demonstrated in the streets of Barcelona to oppose President Puigdemont's plans. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy immediately replied with a tweet in support of the anti-secession march: "In defense of democracy, the Constitution and freedom. We will preserve the unity of Spain. You are not alone".
Trying to summarize everything that happened from October 10st to today, Tuesday October 18th, in a few lines is certainly not easy. What we currently know is that at XNUMX today, Carles Puigdemont will appear in front of the Catalan Parliament and perhaps declare the independence of Catalonia from Madrid. The Government of Madrid will certainly not stand by and watch, as Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria has already declared. But what could be the scenarios for tomorrow's meeting in Parliament?
DUI – Unilateral Declaration of Independence
This is the first hypothesis, the most disruptive, in line with what has been declared to date by the political leaders of Catalonia. The declaration would apply the law by which the referendum was called. But it doesn't mean that we really get to divorce or, at least, not immediately.
The article 155
The Rajoy government does not have a definite position on the issue, although it considers it a possible option and will do everything to prevent unilateral independence from Catalonia. He will wait to hear Puigdemont's words before taking action. Should independence be declared, the premier will be able to apply article 155 of the Spanish Constitution, which provides for the commissioning of the autonomous community. To do this, the support of Rajoy's rival Socialist Party is not required. If this hypothesis were made explicit, Rajoy would consequently also take over the control of the local police, and could find himself faced with a protest by the Mossos d'Esquadra, the Catalan police forces, already de facto replaced by the Guardia Civil of Madrid .
International mediation
This would be the more cautious solution. The treaties exclude EU intervention because it is an internal matter of the Spanish state but moral suasion is always possible and Brussels could make it clearer than it has done so far that there is no place for an independent Republic of Catalonia in the European Union. Today Puigdemont could also limit himself to the official communication of the outcome of the referendum. From that moment on, Catalan law provides for 48 hours for the proclamation of independence, but among the Catalan political leaders there are also those who speak of about two weeks of stalemate, during which to find alternative ways of dialogue to seek mediation. Scenario supported by Madrid.
Army in the field
Fortunately, this is a very remote possibility, but not impossible. A possible deployment of military forces in Catalonia would put Madrid in a bad light in the international community and would only increase tensions. The president of the Generalitat Carles Puigdemont could risk up to 25 years in prison. The Spanish popular party has thus threatened the Catalan leader, in the event that the declaration of independence were to arrive, even if all this would require an order from the Supreme Court.
THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Regardless of the outcome of today's meeting in the Catalan Parliament, the problem linked to a phenomenon that has already begun remains to be addressed: banks and companies have begun to move their registered offices to other Spanish regions, fearing the economic and administrative isolation of Catalonia. Among the main companies that have announced the change of residence are, above all, CaixaBank (which moved to Valencia) and Banco Sabadell, which moved its headquarters to Alicante. And then Gas Natural and other multinationals. Yesterday Abertis, which the Italian Atlantia has its eyes on, also moved its headquarters from Catalonia to Madrid.
An alarm was also launched by Andra Schaechter, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund: “If the Catalan crisis persists, there will be serious risks for the economy. Political tensions could undermine confidence in consumer investment". Furthermore, Fitch's agency has announced that it is ready to cut Catalonia's credit rating.
