The Cassation ruling on the Mediaset case could be postponed until tomorrow, but Silvio Berlusconi has already done the math. The scenario changed after the prosecution of the attorney general, who yesterday asked to confirm the four-year prison sentence for the Cavaliere, but to reduce the ban from public office from five to three years.
The discount has revived the hopes of the former premier, who is now convinced that he can obtain a further reduction of up to 18 months. This is the key passage that will determine Berlusconi's death or political survival, also because in the last few hours the quotations on the final decision of the judges have changed: definitive sentence or repetition of the appeal process now seem the two most probable choices, while The hypotheses of acquittal or postponement of the pronouncement until after the summer lose ground.
“If the interdiction is reduced to 18 months, it's done – reasons the Knight -. I discount it before the end of the legislature and I return to Parliament at the helm of Forza Italia ". In fact, it is probable that the next elections will be held in the spring of 2015, above all considering that the Head of State will do everything possible not to dissolve the Chambers before the reform of the Porcellum.
At that point Berlusconi - now eligible for re-election - could run again for Palazzo Chigi at the helm of the old party, which he aims to resurrect in the coming months in a lightened and vaguely American version. The new Forza Italia would be a purely electoral vehicle, without sections or ramifications on the territory, and the role of the Knight would be in some way similar to that of Beppe Grillo in the 5 Star Movement: a charismatic leader recognized by all, but without official offices .
For such a project to be realized, however, it is not enough for the judges to agree to reduce the ban. It is essential that the Letta government survives. Berlusconi knows this, and has ordered his people not to utter a single word that could cast doubt on the holding of the majority.
The climate in the Pd house is quite different, where Matteo Renzi is trembling in view of the upcoming elections for the party secretariat. If the Cassation confirms the sentence of the Knight, no matter how many years of interdiction, for the mayor of Florence "everything will change: it will no longer be possible to play games and tricks of the apparatus". And the showdown between the various souls of the Democrats will only accelerate.
