Il Real Estate Market is back on the move and preparing for new performances. Especially in big cities like Milan and Rome, which offer more job opportunities and where the competition for housing is greater. But not only. On the one hand the mortgage applications they have started to grow again since their rates they are pointing towards the Bass and above all in the future they should fall further. But the share of those who buy a house using the Internet is also growing, now around 60%. liquidity in the portfolio. The other option is the rent in the most varied formulas, including those for homes that also offer a multitude of services more through a single app.
In any case, market experts are looking further ahead and are already taking into account the impact they will have Winter Olympic Games in Italy now upon us and the gap that the Italian market has compared to its colleagues Europeans.
Mortgage rates have started to fall again in the last two months
On the mortgage side, the market is starting to position itself in view of the cuts expected from the ECB. “The conditions are being created on the market for a revival of the real estate market, thanks above all to the credit dynamics. After the fixed rate, now the variable rate is also starting to fall" they tell Mutuionline. During 2023 there was a decline in mortgage applications, but theaverage amount requested marked the peak of the last 10 years, equal to 144.659 euros, according to Crif and to cope with the increase in installments the Italians have extended the life of the loan, with 8 out of 10 requests over 15 years old.
“In 2023, mortgage rates exceeded 5% for variable and 4% for fixed, leading to a 28% drop in disbursements,” observes Nicoletta Papucci, marketing director of MutuiOnline.it. “However in the last two months there was a'trend reversal. Assuming the defeat of inflation, i fixed could stabilize around 3%”. Good prospects also for the variable rate, with Euribor futures discounting a cut in official rates by one and a half points during this year. “If this is the case, the cost of variable rate mortgages at the end of the year will be around 3,5%,” adds Papucci.
Markets are returning to normality after the peaks
After last year's tidal wave, the Real Estate Market is returning to normal. The surge in official rates had pushed fixed income returns to record levels, which in some cases had become an alternative to real estate investments. Especially since mortgage rates had also soared. But “in the last weeks the situation has changed: on fixed income we no longer see the same returns as before and mortgage rates are falling. Furthermore, the properties that had seen prices fall last year are still affordable" they say to the research office of an international real estate agency. “But it is not only the economic situation that has changed: we must also look further in space and time” they add.
House prices: we need to fill the gap with Europe and prepare for the Olympic Games
There are two considerations to make, both of which will lead to a rise in house prices: the first is that the Italian real estate market is still undervalued compared to those of other countries and therefore has yet to close the gap, the second is that the Winter Olympic Games Milan-Cortina from 22 to 22 February 2026.
“For many years, the Italian real estate market went against the tide because the high spread on public debt prevented it from benefiting from low rates. For this reason, the real estate market has not experienced the appreciation recorded in the rest of Europe except for the last 2-3 years" Matthew Ramenghi, chief investment officer of UBS GWM in Italy. In particular, "Milan recorded a 2% drop in real estate market prices but "the solid prospects for the local economy, the expansion of the metro line and the upcoming 2026 Winter Olympic Games contribute to supporting the valuations", adds Ramenghi.
The rent alternative: demand drops again
That segment of the population that is unable to access a mortgage, for example because it has an installment that is too high, or a salary that is too low, and does not have sufficient liquidity, has recently tried to resort to to the rent. With ups and downs.
La application for rent in the last year he has seen one growth important, they tell Immobiliare.it, equal to +21,8%, with the Center even recording +48,6%. Obviously the more the demand grows, the more fees are growing which saw an increase of 6,3% over the year, reaching an average of 2023 euros per square meter at the end of 12,4, with the North West being the most expensive macrozone (13,4 euros/mXNUMX). Furthermore, it real estate stock made available for rent has been drastically reduced due to the owners' preference for short-term rentals and the lower supply has increased the rents, so much so that the mortgage becomes competitive again. This all led to areversal of the rental trend and the question in the last 3 months is dropped by 7,4%.
NonSoloCasa: rent with one click, but together with other services. The G Rent case
But a new opportunity is making its way: CASE to rent with an app to which numerous can be added related services support. They are requested by people, especially young people, who on the one hand have less access to financing, and on the other, perhaps for work reasons, have more interest in temporary solutions that solve more problems.
“It's a new trend within the proptech segment, focused on the principle of home as a service, where access is more important than possession" He says Emiliano Di Bartolo CEO of G Rent, proptech company active in the luxury property hospitality sector listed on the Egm market (Euronext growth Milan) which is focusing its business on the so-called "built to rent”. “We are aiming for a portfolio of built-to-rent apartments with at least 400 units by 2026” he adds, “with apartments managed with a fully digitalized process”. For this type of house, through app you can request check-in, complete with a dematerialized contract, but you can also ask for cleaning, or a dog sitter or a babysitter and so on until checkout.
"Computerization and the use of new technologies will allow you to completely automate all living processes, starting from the selection of the house in our buildings, to its customisation, up to the rental contract and check in/check out" says Di Bartolo who is also managing director of Santandrea Luxury Houses & Top Properties, a Gabetti Group company specialized in management of short-term rentals in the corporate and luxury segments. "All the processes paper free will be completely digitized and will allow the user to take possession of the home even with medium-long term contracts, exclusively with a process of Online registration and credit card. This is a new approach that is seeing evolution especially in Milan and Rome where the price rush we are convinced it will not stop." At the basis of the trend we see a home search process that involves complete disintermediation and strong simplification, compared to what normally happens today". In Milan GRent is investing above all in the semi-central ring and in particular in those areas where enormous redevelopment processes are underway, such as the area of the Farini airport which would be inserted into the well-known Porta Nuova.
