The fourth edition of the ING International Survey "Houses and Mortgages" - carried out on a sample of around 15.000 individuals from 15 countries in Europe, the United States and Australia - analyzed perceptions relating to homes, expectations regarding property prices, but also the difficulties encountered in buying a first home and the determining factors in choosing where to live.
In Italy, 33% of individuals interviewed believe that house prices will increase in the next 12 months, against 56% of Europeans and 60% of Americans. Compared to last year there is a slight increase (+3), but in percentage terms Italians remain the most pessimistic in Europe on the growth of house prices, followed at a distance by France, Poland and Spain. At the same time, three out of four Italians (about 73%) recognize that, in some respects, a possible drop in prices could be positive for society (percentage in line with the European one of 72%).
Compared to last year, Italians, on the other hand, are better equipped to meet mortgage expenses or rent payments. In terms of mortgages, 31% of landlords holding a mortgage declare that they find it difficult to manage the expenses for the installment while 39% of tenants declare that they have difficulty paying the monthly rent: an improvement, albeit relative, compared to 2014 when 35% of those interviewed with a mortgage and 45% of tenants declared difficulty in paying.
Despite the slight improvement, Italians still show that they have more problems than the rest of Europe, where only 26% of borrowers and 24% of tenants report difficulties in meeting monthly installments. The survey also shows that, among Italians who do not show difficulty in paying installments or mortgages, around 48% are convinced that house prices are too high anyway. Similar percentages are also found in Germany, France and the United Kingdom (47%, 48% and 52% respectively).
An apparently shared indication among European consumers is that, for those entering the real estate market for the first time, it is becoming increasingly difficult to buy a home. In fact, 83% of Italians interviewed affirm this, regardless of age group. Percentage that drops to 79% for the European average. On the other hand, only 59% of Germans, whose real estate market is considered by many to be undervalued, agree.
Among the factors determining the decision to buy a house, family income is in first place in almost all countries, including Italy. Other factors considered to be very relevant are the price of the properties and the availability of monetary provisions. For Italians more than elsewhere, the prospects of the economy seem to play a decisive role.
Dissenting opinions among Europeans on the role of home purchase as a vehicle for accumulating wealth. 52% of the Italians interviewed no longer consider it an attractive alternative, while the percentage of disaffected drops to 44% for the average European consumer and reaches a minimum of 28% in Belgium.
When asked about how they would use any economic resources for renovation works, the Italians show particular attention to the issue of energy saving, placing the installation of solar panels at the top of the list and, subsequently, interventions aimed at improving energy efficiency, such as replacement of fixtures.
Lastly, the survey sought to identify which factors determine the choice of a dream home. Italians, like everyone else, believe that price is the most important factor, followed by the safety of the neighbourhood, proximity to services and means of transport and the size of the property. Less relevant, for the purposes of the choice, are the presence of a garden or a balcony, proximity to the workplace and energy costs.
The comment of Paolo Pizzoli, Senior Economist at ING Bank Italia: “The results of the survey seem to well reflect the uneven evolution of the real estate market in the various countries. In the case of Italy, the pessimism on the house price outlook shows how the recent negative trend in prices has been well metabolized by our fellow citizens. Istat data on house prices show that the downward trend in prices, which began in 2012, has only recently begun to slow down: the latest survey, relating to the first quarter of 2015, signaled a downward trend of 3,4%. Not surprisingly, therefore, Italians expect this trend to continue over the next 12 months. The greater difficulty of Italians compared to the European average in meeting mortgage payments or monthly rent is justified by the delay with which the Italian economy has returned to growth. The consolidation of the recovery in household disposable income, largely determined by the improvement in the employment situation, should lead to an improvement over the next few quarters”.
