To change the Italicum or not? The question arises today in different terms than it did before the local elections because at this point a victory of the M5S in the next general elections cannot be ruled out. In theory, an electoral law should never be changed according to political circumstances or conveniences, but here all one should do is meet the demands of all the oppositions, including the 5 Star Movement. This makes it possible to face without forcing what is a completely exceptional circumstance.
Someone has suggested that we are in a situation similar to that of April 18, 1948.
The Italian economy and with it the democratic institutions would not hold up to a victory of the M5S. Even the prospect of a victory for the M5S would probably be enough to generate a wave of distrust that would put our banks, public debt and our very permanence in the euro at risk. And this would take place in a context in which European solidarity or, if you prefer, the automatic pilot Mario Draghi spoke of would find it difficult to activate due to the strong anti-European, anti-German and anti-American sentiments - actually substantially anti-Western - which dominate in the M5S.
Therefore a Five Star government is a prospect that Italy cannot afford.
Not even Europe can afford it, for which it would be much worse than Brexit if only for the fact that Italy is part of the Eurozone. It is no coincidence that the reports of international organizations and large banks have begun to speak again of political risk in Europe and in particular in Italy. Caravans of analysts are returning to Italy and, as in 2011, are more interested in understanding the evolution of the political situation than the details of the economic outlook. Not all investors are negative about Italy, but most don't trust it and stay on the sidelines. This also applies to Italians: business investments in particular are languishing because there is unused capacity, but also because there is a strong political risk. The economy therefore resumes, but at a slower pace than would be possible. A real recovery is unlikely to be possible until the political risk is averted.
Faced with this perspective, there is a strong temptation to change the Italicum in order to attenuate its majority character, thus going towards – we repeat – what was basically the request of all the oppositions including the M5S. In this way, the formation of a monochromatic M5S government would become almost impossible in the sense that even if it were the first party, it would be forced to evaluate whether to ally itself with other political forces, center-right or center-left, or fold.
There is also a strong temptation to implement the change in the electoral law (or at least to announce it) before the constitutional referendum. This in order to avoid uniting those who, were it not for the danger of the M5S, would vote "yes" in the "no" front. It is in fact evident that a rejection of the new constitution would bring back to life a Senate elected with a proportional law, which would also prevent the formation of a monochromatic M5S.
Are there any alternatives or contraindications to this scenario?
The alternative obviously exists and it is basically the most natural one. It consists in beating the M5S politically. By September it will be necessary to have made an assessment on this point, bearing in mind all the variables of the scenario: the government's action (banks, stability law, Renzi's popularity, etc.), the action of the centre-right (Parisi will be able to restore center-right perspective and recover the votes that in Rome and Turin went to the M5S?), the international scenario (migrations, terrorism, wars, etc.). It will also be important to understand how the big press will line up, which at the moment seems more attracted by a silly anti-Renzi-style grind than by the substance of the looming problems.
The contraindications are also obvious. If the Italicum is changed, on election night it will not be known who won and a coalition government will have to be formed. It will probably be a German-style grand coalition, since the M5S, even if it finishes first, will not want to ally with anyone. In Germany the grand coalition worked quite well. In Italy it would work badly, because the political forces have fought each other savagely over the years, it would risk becoming a fixed target for the M5S and lasting a few months. We would therefore soon return to the polls with a further strengthened M5S.
One thing is clear in any case. The battle against the M5S must not be left in the hands of second-row politicians in Rome or Turin. It must become a major national issue, involving high-ranking politicians, including those no longer in active service, intellectuals, columnists, economists, scientists. Italy cannot fall into the hands of people who believe in the nonsense of happy degrowth and think that vaccines are a multinational conspiracy.
