Il climate change and the increase in temperatures will have negative effects on the Italian economy in the medium to long term, in particular on agriculture and . This is what emerges from a research project published by the Bank of Italy. In one of these studies, the analysts point out that an increase of 1,5 degrees "could lead to a level of per capita GDP in 2100 between 2,8 and 9,5% lower than in the baseline scenario with stable temperatures. “Agriculture is one of the most exposed sectors” but industry and tourism will also be affected.
To date, 2022 is the hottest year ever recorded since 1800. The increase in temperatures was almost one degree Celsius higher (0.96°C) than the average calculated in the thirty-year period 1990-2020. In Europe, on the other hand, as of all of September, 2022 is in third place as the hottest year since 1800 while globally it drops to fifth place. And future forecasts are not at all reassuring. If the temperature increase was 2°C, the heat extremes would reach critical tolerance thresholds for the performance of some human activities. In addition to global warming climate change includes variations in the possible values of humidity, wind strength, frequency and intensity of precipitation, both in coastal areas and in the oceans. In some regions there will be heavier rains and floods; in other drought phenomena. And this will have greater effects on agriculture and tourism.
Bank of Italy: the weight of climate change on agriculture
The study states that “agriculture is one of the sectors most exposed to rising temperatures and extreme weather events induced by climate change. In one of the works of the project (Accepturo and Alpino, 2022) an econometric analysis on but, germ hard e wine grapes reveals that in the Italian case the negative effects on the yield of these crops occur when the temperature rises above approximately 29°C for cereals and above 32°C in the case of vines. Agriculture is also exposed to extreme events such as hailstorms, but there are few insured Italian farmers against this type of risk, despite the presence of state subsidies. Citino, Palma and Paradisi show how this underinsurance is attributable both to the phenomenon of adverse selection - for which at the prices observed it is convenient to insure only for producers more at risk – and to so-called “frictions” on the demand side, i.e. a set of psychological and cultural factors that induce farmers to underestimate the value of insurance contracts. Bottoni, Frigo and Granato (2022) show that EU funds disbursed under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) have a positive effect on the probability of being insured and also increase investments in crop protection.
Furthermore, companies located in municipalities affected by landslides or floods will pay the worst price, with an average probability of failure significantly higher than farms in unaffected municipalities. “The effects on the performance of companies that survive climatic events are asymmetrical: the negative consequences are concentrated on smaller companies; the larger ones show better adaptability”.
Decline in winter tourism: less snow due to the warm climate
Climate change will have major impacts on thetourism industry in Italy, especially in the mountainous one which risks being among the sectors most exposed to the increase in temperatures and the natural snow reduction. “Our results indicate that, on average, in the period considered, one meter less snow over the course of the season is associated with a 1,3 percent decrease in lift visits, other conditions being equal. Projections to 2100 predict that the decrease in snowfall in winter will be between 30 and 45%, due to lower frequency and intensity of snowfalls”. “According to our estimates, a 40% reduction in the amount of snow in a season would imply on average a 7% decrease in lift visits, which could be much more severe in locations located at lower altitudes. Artificial snow does not appear able in itself to support the tourist demand linked to winter sports” add the researchers from Via Nazionale.
For Via Nazionale, it appears crucial to expand the tourist offer with activities not strictly connected to the snow and to invest in infrastructures and programs capable of supporting and push other types of tourism, such as that related to congresses, wellness centers or winter sports not related to snow.
Or reverse the type of tourism, since summer mountain tourism is often indicated as a potential beneficiary of global warming, which would instead make the seaside areas in the Mediterranean more inhospitable
When it's too hot, student performance suffers, and more
Finally, according to the Bank of Italy, high temperatures also damage the results of younger students and math exams. Bank of Italy underlines the negative effect of the heat in the Invalsi tests which take place between the end of May and June, suggesting different dates for different areas of the country or the use of air conditioning systems in schools. “Empirical evidence – we read – indicates negative effects especially in mathematics, at extreme temperatures and for younger students. Also, there are signs of a increased emotional stress during tests for younger students, such as increased anxiety and worsening of the feeling of well-being during proficiency tests".
Bank of Italy: "Accelerate on technological innovation and recover ground"
Climate change is not an irreversible process and against which there are no forms of defense, but a complex phenomenon that intertwines socio-economic and natural dynamics: on the one hand, the behavior of people and businesses influence the greenhouse gas emissions and therefore the future evolution of the climate; on the other hand, the changes underway influence the choices of the economic agents themselves who try to find strategies for mitigation and adaptation. To face the challenges posed by climate change, not only an understanding of natural phenomena is therefore necessary, but also an analysis of the functioning of society and the economic system.
The study emphasizes how Italy should "accelerate in technological innovation and recover ground in the production of 'green' patents where it has had a negative trend since 2008 unlike other European states". However, our country can count on knowledge concentrated in innovations “aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change linked to transport sector and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector”.
