Olive trees that go north and produce excellent oil at the foot of the Alps to the point that Sondrio, beyond the 46th parallel, seems to have become the last northern frontier of olive oil iitalian: in the last ten years the cultivation ofolive tree on the sunniest ridges of the Valtellina mountains has gone from zero to about ten thousand trees, on almost 30 thousand square meters of land.
And what about the tomato production for preserves which now comes from 50% of the Po Valley crops? How does it happen for durum wheat in pasta? And that's not all, because for some time now, to counteract the increase in grape sugar – Italian wine has increased by one degree in the last 30 years – the vineyards are pushed higher and higher on the plateaus and mid-mountains, as in the municipality of Morgex and La Salle, in the province of Aosta, where the grapes for the Blanc de Morgex et de La Salle Dop are produced from the highest vines in Europe.
And the effect of climate change photographed in a report by Coldiretti, a change that began a few decades ago and, according to forecasts, it seems that it will continue for a long time, upsetting the agricultural habits of our country and beyond.
The olive trees are grown at the foot of the Alps and half of the tomato production for preserves comes from the Po valley
The analysis of Coldiretti with reference to the data of the Copernicus report highlights how the 2022 was the second hottest year ever recorded in Europe and even the hottest ever in Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, Great Britain and Ireland. In Italy, in particular, the average temperature was 1,15 degrees higher, a worrying figure which was accompanied by a 30 percent decrease in rainfall. It is also worrying that the overheating trend in our country has sharply increased in the last decade in the order after 2022, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2019 and 2020.
On the other hand, if the north has been Mediterraneanising for some time in the south of the boot, more and more agricultural scenarios typical of Africa are projected where tropical fruits such asavocado, mango, banana, papaya and passion fruit they fit perfectly and they come products not only for domestic markets but are even exported abroad.
The tropical crops in Puglia, Sicily and Calabria are close to 1200 hectares
Within five years the tropical crops in Italy have practically tripled reaching almost 1200 hectares between Puglia, Sicily and Calabria. Sicily takes the lion's share with avocado and mango cultivations of different varieties in the countryside between Messina, Etna and Acireale, but also passion fruit, black zapote (similar to persimmon, of Mexican origin), sapodilla (from which latex is also obtained), lychee, the small Chinese fruit that resembles Muscat grapes. Puglia is no less where tropical crops are now a consolidated reality, driven by the effects of drought with a surge in the cultivation of avocados, mangoes and Goji berries together with many other exotic products such as aronia berries, bananas and lime . And tropical Italians are also widespread in Calabria where the cultivation of mango, avocado and passion fruit are added thay aubergine (Thai variant of our aubergine), macadamia (dried fruit halfway between almond and hazelnut) and even sugar cane, while the annona, another fruit typical of the countries of South America is now widespread along the coasts to the extent that it is also used to produce jam.
In Saxony they begin to produce fish and apricots and in Denmark and Sweden wine
The speech does not obviously concern only Italy but also northern Europe. Regions that until a few years ago were too cold to support certain crops will be able to convert to agriculture. In Saxony, where the average temperature has risen by about 2°C in recent decades, have begun to appear the first orchards with peaches and apricots; while in England, Denmark and Sweden there are even those who produce wine. The problem is that according to the IPCC, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the losses to agriculture in southern Europe will not be compensated by the gains in northern Europe. The solutions, or at least the mitigation measures, are therefore to be found elsewhere.
What is looming on the horizon therefore assumes worrying aspects from a civil and economic point of view.
"Agriculture is the economic activity that more than all the others experiences the consequences of climate change on a daily basis but it is also the sector most committed to countering them" says the president of Coldiretti Ettore Prandini in underlining that "climate change imposes a new challenge for agricultural businesses that have to interpret the news reported by meteorology and the effects on crop cycles, water management and local safety".
Wheat, maize and sugar beet crops expected to shrink by 50% in southern Europe
According to the IPCC report, excessive heat and water shortages will slow down or even block plant growth. The heat waves that will become increasingly intense risk ruining entire years, and even the most generous models predict that in the coming decades southern Europe will face a dramatic increase in the number of days in a year with insufficient water resources. With a 2°C increase in temperature, 54% of the population of southern Europe will experience drought, even if not always in extreme forms.
Not to mention that with the increase in temperatures we will have to abandon certain crops: the projections say that Wheat, maize and sugar beet cultivation will be reduced by 50% in southern Europe. Crops will therefore be increasingly expensive and difficult to maintain, resulting in a decrease in the quantity and quality of the products arriving on the market and a simultaneous increase in the price.
According to a 2019 report from the EEA, this will also cause a collapse in land value, which could decrease by 80% by 2100, causing a mass abandonment of fields and a business that is no longer profitable. What happened in 2018 is true for everyone, due to a combination of winter frost waves and summer heat waves and droughts: lItaly has lost 57% of its total olive production; a year later, Spain lost 44%. Data to think about.
