“We have to define a transition plan to a different welfare system, as if it were an industrial plan, because personal services are a very important driver of growth: they favor employment, stimulate internal demand and are a factor of social stabilization”. This is the position of Carlo Calenda, Minister of Economic Development, who spoke today at the conference "White economy: innovation and growth", organized in Rome by Unipol.
“Citizens demand that welfare services be free – continues Calenda – but this does not mean that they must necessarily be provided by the National Health Service. They can get involved even private individuals, for example by delegating some functions to the corporate welfare, where possible". A similar plan would require immediate cost increase which would hardly get the green light from the European Commission, but according to the minister it would be worthwhile to operate "even in deficit” to obtain a more efficient system in perspective. "As we did with Industry 4.0, we need to create a multi-year plan that looks to the next 3-4 years", also "in coordination with the Regions".
From the proceedings of the conference it emerges that today the "white economy”, i.e. the chain of public and private activities for social security and health protection, is valid in Italy 290 billion euros, equal to 9,4% of GDP, and employs a 3,8 million employees (2,8 direct and one in related industries), about 16% of the total workforce. A sector therefore already developed, but destined to grow further, because the demand for assistance will increase with the progressive aging of the population.
As he remembers Giorgio Alleva, president of Istat, the life expectancy of an Italian woman born in 2016 is 84,7 years, “a world record that we share with Japan”. But will it be possible to guarantee everyone an adequate standard of living even at that age? At the moment, there is no balance between the tools available: 65,5% of non self-sufficient elderly people receive help from non-cohabiting family members, while 23% turn to public services and less than 20% to private individuals (Istat data ).
On this front, the most serious problem concerns pensions. After the Dini (1995) and Fornero (2011) reforms, the Italian pension system has become one of the most sustainable from the point of view of public finance, but the social costs are heavy. "The expected replacement rate for today's young workers, i.e. the ratio between the last salary received and the pension to which they will be entitled - he recalls Salvatore Rossi, general manager of the Bank of Italy and president of IVASS – is around 50%, no longer 80% as in the past. This means that public welfare is no longer enough, an integration with the private one is needed. And unfortunately among young people there is still little awareness of this need”.
Also, second Charles Cimbri, CEO of the Unipol group, there is also a problem of growth: “If a young person works with a precarious contract or in any case has a low salary, how can he bear the costs of the supplementary pension? Must grow incomes, because without growth there is nothing, not even welfare”. Furthermore, the number one of Unipol believes that, on personal services, “the State must organize long-term planning, streamlining the system and coordinating it with fiscal and social policies. This is what has been lacking in Italy in the last 20-30 years”. An industrial plan, in fact.
