Today at 18 the European football championships in Poland and Ukraine kick off in Warsaw with the challenge between the hosts and Greece. The game, technically, does not offer great ideas, but by playing a curious parallel between football and the economy, the match contains many meanings.
It will be a spin, like a Juventus-Cesena in the last Serie A championship or a Brazil-New Zealand at the World Cup: in fact, the European nation that grows the most economically takes the field (GDP +4,3%, second only to Ukraine, +5,2%, which however is not in the EU) against that, dramatically known in the news, whose GDP fell by 2011% in 6,9 and which risks heavily the exit from the euro.
From the euro, perhaps, but not yet from the European, to which the Greeks, winners of the 2004 edition, are holding on with all their strength precisely to revive the fortunes of a country deeply wounded by the crisis that is gripping it. And the group, in fact, is not one of the most prohibitive ones.
Poland and Greece will have to contend with Russia and the Czech Republic, who take the field tonight at 20.45. The Russians are returning from the incredible 3-0 trimmed against Italy in a friendly, but they are an old and not irresistible national team. The same goes for the Czechs, who, apart from a few stars like Cech and Rosicki, present themselves at the event in the guise of an impoverished nobleman. If nothing else, however, Russia, together with Poland, wins the economic challenge: for the BRICS country, the GDP growth rate is in fact equal to that of the landlords (+4,3%).
Therefore, according to the GDP ranking, the two host nations should play for the final victory, with France, Sweden and Germany well positioned. Unlikely. Let's try with the spreads: here too, the first place would go to the virtuous Denmark, in a hypothetical final with Germany. A little more likely, but we're not there yet. Much more "realistic" could be the ranking of unemployment rates (obviously going to reward the lowest): here the podium would be occupied byHolland, actually among the favourites, again from Germany and the revived Czech Republic. The highly favored Spain (the bookmakers still quote it at 3), reigning European and world champion, is instead obviously cut off from any reasoning: given the recent financial vicissitudes, it would be for elimination to the first shift.
It's Italy? As we all already know, he would have very little chance in this virtual championship. There are those who are worse off, such as Greece, Portugal, and Croatia's opponents in the group, but the real problem with the national team, at least the one we've seen so far, is that even if we think outside the paradox, things aren't going any better. Prandelli's boys are back from three games without a single goal to their credit, and have to deal with serious injuries such as those of Rossi and Barzagli. Not to mention the precarious form of some players such as Cassano, the unreliability of Balotelli, the advanced age of half the team and above all the possible psychological backlash caused by the investigation into football betting, which saw the exclusion of one of the owners, Criscito, and the probable lack of serenity for Bonucci and Buffon, the former under investigation and the latter possibly involved in the storm.
Will Prandelli be able to solve the puzzle? The answer will come Sunday between 18 and 19,30 approximately, when Italy and Spain will take the field. The last two national world champions. So much for the spread.
