2024 ended with a series of extraordinary increases for cocoa and coffee, two of the raw material most important globally. The cocoa recorded a170% surge, while the coffee has seen its prices rise 78 %. Numbers that have also surpassed the gold trend of financial assets such as Bitcoin (+120%). The main factors that pushed prices to new heights were difficult weather conditions, but also other global dynamics that have put pressure on the entire sector. But what has caused these unprecedented increases?
Cocoa: a record year
Cocoa has seen a exorbitant price increases, closing at $11.241 per tonne in New York on December 30, 2024, the largest daily gain on record. At year-end, the price of the raw material has therefore increased by 170% compared to the beginning of 2024. The climate change has had a devastating impact on crops, particularly in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which together account for about 60% of world production.
The heavy rains, the strong winds and the spread of diseases such as the virus of shoot swelling have reduced yields in these regions. Côte d'Ivoire has seen a 25-30% decrease in its production, while in Ghana the rains have further aggravated the situation. As a result, the global cocoa production has decreased by 13,1%, with end-of-season stocks falling by 26,8%. This increased market volatility, pushing up prices.
Despite the rising costs, the demand for cocoa remained high. The confectionery industry has had to adapt, even reducing portion sizes or changing recipes. Traditional 100-gram bars have been replaced with 75- and 60-gram versions. Some manufacturers have also started replacing cocoa butter with cheaper vegetable oils, while maintaining transparency with consumers.
Coffee: the cup is increasingly expensive
even the coffee was not spared from this spiral of increases. I arabica prices have reached 50-year highs, closing at 321 cents per pound in New York, up 78% from January 2024. The Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, has experienced a difficult agricultural year. abnormal temperatures and drought They have reduced crop forecasts, raising fears of a grain shortage.
To these climatic factors were added geopolitical problems, such as disruptions in the Red Sea, which have complicated the transportation of goods, and uncertainty arising from possible US tariffs and new European regulations on deforestation. And so the price continued to rise while demand for coffee remained robust.
Coffee chains and producers have had to deal with thecost increase of production. In some cases, they had to raise prices to cope with the rising costs, while others have sought alternative solutions, reducing the cost of ingredients to avoid passing the increase entirely on to consumers.
What to expect in 2025
2024 has highlighted how Cocoa and coffee markets vulnerable to climate events and geopolitical dynamics. The Forecasts for the next year they are not particularly rosy, and there is a risk that prices will continue to rise. Experts warn that consumers could face smaller chocolate bars e most expensive cups of coffee also in the 2025.
In response to this crisis, the industry is looking innovative solutions. Producers are diversifying their supply sources and investing in technologies to improve crop yields. However, the road to a price stabilization is still a long way off, and 2025 could bring new challenges.
