La drought it can also have a taste: more bitter. It will also happen for the cup of coffee, increasingly loved and in demand in the world. And who knows, having to give up the usual, beloved taste of “small cup” may prompt us to reflect more on what is happening to the planet.
Just the drought and climate change are changing the culture and production of the coffee with consequences not only on the price, but even on the taste, because the grains being used are no longer able to withstand the current atmospheric conditions and we are thinking of switching to other more resistant grains, which will also be more bitter.
“Not only will prices go up,” he said Vanusia Nogueira, Executive Director of ICO, International Coffee Organization at the Financial Times. “Unfortunately, it could change the flavor. Less good precisely because of the alterations of its natural environment".
Plants of the “Arabica” species are no longer resistant to climate change
On the slopes of Mount Kenya, an extinct volcano, Martin Kinyua, a small coffee farmer, has decided not to plant new crops. The seedlings, reports the BBC, will simply die from the heat.
“We have an extended drought season,” Kinyua explains. “We are used to two rainy seasons, the short one and the long one. At this moment it is not possible to say when the short rains will arrive ”.
Kinyua, a member of the Mutira Farmers Cooperative in Kirinyaga county in Kenya, adds that higher temperatures attract more pests and diseases, increasing the cost of protecting his produce. What is happening on Martin's farm is an idea of the danger the coffee industry is in.
Arabica, the species cultivated by Martin, represents the majority of coffee beans marketed globally, around 70%. But it is very sensitive to changes in both temperature and humidity. Over the past two years, production has failed to meet demand. The results of a recent study suggest that if global temperatures rose by 2°C, countries supplying a quarter of the world's Arabica would experience sharp declines in yield. A 2,5°C rise will have this impact on 75% of supply.
The other type of coffee most used in the world is the "Robust physique”, tougher than the other: it grows at higher temperatures and is better resistant to parasites and diseases. But even this species is vulnerable to significant and long-lasting climate changes such as the ones we are facing. “Coffee loves a temperate climate: rainy but not too much, neither too hot nor too cold. Areas like this are increasingly difficult to find” notes on the FT, Jennifer Long, of the World Coffee Research Institute.
The alternative: the “Liberica” bean. But the taste does not gain
The industry is now pinning its hopes on another species of coffee to support production: the "Liberate“. Originating in West and Central Africa, commercial cultivation is concentrated in the Philippines and currently accounts for only 2% of the global coffee bean crop.
With a harder bean that is difficult to process, and a flavor perceived as less desirable, Liberica is now gaining renewed interest in its resistance to climate change.
Liberica has already been embraced by the International Coffee Organization – the main intergovernmental body for coffee – as part of its mission to strengthen the sector.
Its executive director Vanúsia Nogueira says, as reported by the BBC, that the taste of the coffee will probably change with the addition of Liberica but at least the industry will be able to satisfy the demand. If anything, his main concern is the survival of farmers, because economic insecurity is "a constant problem".
Everyone is crazy about the cup of coffee. But at what price?
Yet the request for coffee is increasingly increasing and has now also infected the Asian markets, traditionally more devoted to tea: in addition to the growing consumers of China, where Starbucks already plans to open a new café every 9 hours until 2025 for a total of 9.000 locations, there are now also India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam. Not forgetting the growing populations of sub-Saharan Africa. An economically positive signal, writes Agrifood: coffee consumption is an indicator of increased wealth, the hot baptism of a new emerging middle class. But the price could go up and then coffee would become a luxury item.
The climate emergency around the corner
According to a study by the Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment we will need 25 percent more coffee by 2030. If this goes on, we will reach a daily demand equal to 6 billion cups by 2050. But the one produced by a pressed industry by the growing demand it may not be enough, already in the short term. Over the past two years, demand has in fact suddenly exceeded supply. And the slowdown of the industry obviously contributes climate changes: on the one hand, land suitable for cultivation is drying up. On the other rains e high temperatures related to the return of El Niño – a phenomenon that causes a strong warming of the waters of the Central-Southern and Eastern Pacific Ocean on average every 5 years, with a variable period between 3 and 7 years, causing global instability – are already putting crops in crisis. This was seen in May, when coffee bean prices hit the level maximum from 15 years to this part.
Half of the land out of use
Forecasts are disturbing: by 2050, half of the land cultivated with coffee could be unusable. The major producers of the product – Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia and Indonesia – will have fewer and fewer suitable areas. Others may take advantage: countries outside the tropics such as the United States, Argentina, Uruguay and China. But this could still lead to significant ecological costs in terms of deforestation. Meanwhile, producers, overwhelmed by the climate crisis, are impoverishing despite the increase in demand: they invest less and less in their land. So much so that sustainability experts have no doubts: prices must be increased to guarantee the future of quality coffee. Otherwise there won't be the resources to face the new global challenges.
