THEeconomy is slowing down in the third quarter and the future remains uncertain. The confirmation comes from companies, through a survey of Assolombarda at the beginning of September. According to 51% of companies, the performance of the Lombardy economy between July and September is in line with that of the second quarter, already decelerating, and 36% report a worsening. Only 10% believe the situation is improving. The survey also highlights that a sentiment of stability (46% of respondents) or worsening (36%) of the economic context compared to the current quarter. 15% expect a positive trend, however. In perspective, the expectations on the performance of the Lombardy economy in 2024 remain Incerte, with a substantially uniform distribution between those who expect a more favorable picture compared to 2023 (31%), those who expect a worsening (30%) and those who expect stability (29%).
“Businesses in the area confirm the slowdown in the economic scenario highlighted by the recent Istat data linked to the second quarter of 2023 – he declared Alessandro Spada, president of Assolombarda -. Among the factors that contribute to this deceleration, there are some at an Italian level, such as high inflation, low consumption and a decline in investments. But we are also conditioned by external factors, such as the recession in Germany, the difficulties of the Chinese economy and the monetary policy choices of the Fed and ECB on rates". And again: “Faced with this situation, we are aware of the limited resources available for the Budget Law, but we are equally convinced that it is important to direct the majority of them to stimulate the economy and avoid the risk of a possible recession. Clearly, from this perspective it is first of all essential that the cut in the tax wedge be refinanced in full, and for at least the whole of 2024, as well as considering the adoption of new measures useful for financing Industry 5.0. Finally, I would like to remind you of the importance of the PNRR in stimulating our economy. The recent news of the European Commission's green light for the changes concerning the fourth installment is certainly positive. But we must look at ourselves: the real issue is that we must be able to change pace and commit all the resources at our disposal."
Lombard manufacturing production
Data for the second quarter of 2023 already shows a weakening of the I share Lombard manufacturing, whose performance remains slightly positive: the production level remains close to that of April-June 2022, with a minimum increase of +0,5%. Even in the economic comparison, the growth of regional manufacturing is close to zero (+0,3%). Instead, in Italy there was a fall of -3,3% (year-on-year), as well as, among the European benchmarks, in Spain (-1,3%).
In Lombardy, the sectors affected by an increase in production are: means of transport (+ 13,4%), the leather-footwear (+ 8,6%), theclothing (+ 5,8%), thefeed (+2,8%) and the mechanics (+1,7%), while the textile recorded the steepest decline (-6,9%).
Italian exports to EU countries are decreasing, while non-EU exports are increasing
The deceleration is particularly evident on international markets. Between April and June the Lombard and Italian exports in fact, they decreased by -0,9% and -1,0% compared to the second quarter of 2022. However, the trend changes on a half-yearly basis remain positive, with Lombard exports recording +2023% above between January and June 3,5 the levels of 12 months ago (+4,2% for Italy). In comparison with the reference regions, the contraction in Lombard exports in the second quarter is less marked than what was recorded in Veneto (-2,1%) and in Baden-Württemberg (-9,3%), while the other benchmarks show positive changes (Emilia Romagna +2,8%; Piemonte +14,6%; Bavaria +9%; Catalonia +7,6%; Rhone-Alpes +0,6%.
At a sector level, in the second quarter growth compared to 2022 was negative for rubber-plastics (-5,6%), chemicals (-11,2%), metals (-12,3%) and wood ( -14,5%). Among the destination countries, trade with European partners decreased by -5,7% in the second quarter compared to the corresponding period of 2022 (the same change was +3,3% in the first quarter of this year): in particular , it collapses Germany (-12%) and noticeably fall back Spain (-4,7%), the Poland (-3,6%) and Netherlands (-3,1%). On the contrary, exports to i Extra-EU markets increased by +4,8% compared to April-June 2022, although at a slower pace than the +15% recorded in the previous quarter. Among the most relevant countries stand out Switzerland (+ 14,4%) and Turkey (+ 9,3%).
The labor market
As regards the job market, between April and June the number of occupied in Lombardy (+36 thousand compared to the corresponding period of 2022), thus bringing the employment rate to 68,8% (it was 68,3% a year earlier), above Italy (61,6%) and Piedmont (68%) , but below Emilia-Romagna (70,9%) and Veneto (71,6%). At the same time, the unemployed (-24 thousand) and the inactive (-22 thousand), with the unemployment rate therefore falling to 4,5% (from 5% in the second quarter of 2022), remaining only higher than the 4,2% in Veneto. Compared to the pandemic, the balance in terms of employed people it is confirmed positive (+6 thousand in comparison with the second quarter of 2019), the decline in the number of unemployed attenuates (-30 thousand) and the differential of the inactive is reduced to +10 thousand.
Exports from the Lombardy provinces
Despite the negative performance recorded at a regional level (-0,9%) in the second quarter of 2023, the export of Milan grows by +3,1% year on year. Compared to the same period of 2022, between April and June of this year manufacturing exports grew by +4,7% and the sectors with an expansion on foreign markets higher than the average of the total economy are fashion (+13,2% ), electrical appliances (+7,2%), and mechanics (+3,3%).
Between April and June 2023, exports of Monza e Brianza they grow by +12,9% on a yearly basis, also distancing themselves from the negative regional data. In particular, compared to the same period of 2022, manufacturing recorded a +13,1% and the sectors with the greatest expansion on international markets are pharmaceuticals (+85,9%), food (+35,3%), mechanics (+30,6%), electrical appliances (+18,8%) and electronics (+18,3%).
It also achieves a better performance than the regional one Lodi, that in the second quarter of 2023 exports grew by +3,2% over the same period in 2022. Compared to the spring of last year, manufacturing exports increased by +3,4% and the sectors with an increase in exports higher than the total economy are food (+9,3%), electronics (+6,4%), wood (+5,9%) and electrical appliances (+4,8%).
Finally, the only one out of tune in the group is Pavia. Between April and June 2023, exports from the Pavia area decreased by -0,3% trend, a slightly more contained contraction compared to the -0,9% in Lombardy. In detail, manufacturing exports remain almost stable (-0,1%) and among the expanding sectors we find food (+17,5%), wood (+11,7%), pharmaceuticals (+11,6 .4,9%), mechanics (+1%) and electrical appliances (+XNUMX%).
