La fear of recession it brings down oil and sends Wall Street into a crisis, then pouring into European markets which close negative after a brilliant morning. The fact that the gas price, around EUR 260 MWh, as Europe is now in a hurry to act against crazy price increases. However, the unknown factor remains an agreement in the Union and stop-and-go supplies from Gazprom.
According to S&P, if Russia cuts gas altogether, Germany will go into recession and the ECB will have to increase its refinancing rate to 3% by early 2024.
Forecasts aside, the news says that Business Square today it is practically flat, -0,08%, well below the 22 thousand basis points (21.825) exceeded in the morning. The discounts are more consistent ad Amsterdam -1,15% London -0,88% and Paris -0,19%. Macron has accused Moscow of using energy supplies as a "weapon of war", while Gazprom has reduced supplies to Engie, a major utility across the Alps and is preparing to cut off flows to Germany along the Nord Stream pipeline 1 starting tomorrow.
Limit the damage Madrid -0,08% and Frankfurt is the only fractional increase +0,53%,
High volatility session
Thus ended a highly volatile session, with investor sentiment remaining fragile due to fears of a recession, while central banks declared an all-out war on inflation.
It would be precisely the fear of a drop in demand in the face of a economic crisis, put on the run from crude oil, after the gains of the last few sessions. Brent is trading down about 5% below $100 a barrel.
Eurozone economic sentiment also fell more than forecast in August to 97,6 from 98,9 in July, a figure revised downwards by the EU Commission. However, inflation expectations both in manufacturing and among consumers decreased. Nevertheless, German inflation, in August, was confirmed at a 40-year high: the consumer price index rose by 0,3% per month and 7,9% per year. Harmonized consumer prices, according to the federal statistical agency Destatis, rose by 0,4% per month and by 8,8% per year.
European bankers on the attack and the euro is slightly up
In this context, the most aggressive central bankers are putting pressure on the ECB. In particular, the Dutch central bank, through the voice of its president Klaas Knot, wants a rapid and substantial step (75 basis points) in raising rates.
The perspective of one European central bank hawk helps the euro, which however does not deviate much from parity with the dollar (1,002).
Rising spreads and rates; British government bonds collapse
Lo spread between Italian and German ten-year bonds, it rises to 232 basis points (+1,51%) and yields do not even stop: +3,83% (from +3,78%) for the BTP; +1,5% (from +1,49%) the Bund. What is frightening is the prospect of rising rates from the ECB, but also aid from governments to families and businesses strangled by energy prices.
However, the earthquake that hit bonds in this period is not sparing even British bonds, which collapsed today to align with yesterday's losses of German and US "colleagues", when the London Stock Exchange was closed. Her Majesty's 1986-year yield is on track for the biggest monthly increase since 30, while 3-year gilt yields are above 2014% for the first time since XNUMX.
Overseas, things aren't going much better for i T Bonds, with the two-year bond rate at its highest since 2007.
Returning to Italy, rates rose in Treasury auctions in the morning. In particular, the yield of the BTP at 5 years it is over 3% for the first time since September 2013. The 10-year BTP, maturing 2032 December 3,76 is at 2014% for the first time since XNUMX.
Piazza Affari, financials up, oil down
Financial stocks are doing well, but oil stocks are retreating: the session of the main Milan stock exchange can be summarized as follows.
In detail Tenaris, Eni e Saipem after yesterday's rally, today they leave 5,56%, 2,11% and 1,19% respectively.
It is in red the automotive with titles such as Ferrari -1,28% Cnh -1,04% and stellantis -0,99%, which in turn ballast Exor -1,94%.
The utilities are divided: Snam remains down -1,52%, but rebounds Ivy + 2,46%.
To give oxygen to the Ftse Mib are above all financial securities, with managed savings, banks and insurance companies.
They stand out among the best titles Post + 2,32% nexi + 2,8% Banca Mediolanum + 2,04% Understanding + 1,65% Unipol + 1,47%.
Bene Generali, +1,2%, which before the opening of the market, announced the completion of the acquisition of the majority shares of joint venture of Axa and Affin in Malaysia, thus becoming "one of the main P&C insurers in the country, in line with the group's strategy to strengthen its leadership position in high-potential markets".
Leaving the exclusive circle of blue chips is ko instead Monte dei Paschi, -6,36%.
