For BTPs, a period of still declining yields is announced after the measures decided today by the ECB: new lows will be marked compared to those already reached in 2014. This is the assessment of the market operators interviewed by Radiocor who expect in the next weeks a further drop in yields, albeit moderate.
A possible downward acceleration, capable of pushing the BTp/Bund spread towards the threshold of 100 basis points, is conceivable only in the event that the ECB decides to also use the latest and most decisive tool available to the Eurotower to the deflation risk and relaunching growth in the Eurozone: the purchase of government bonds within a quantitative easing plan.
Low rates are, of course, an advantage for the Treasury. For this year the games are now almost done, given that the ministry led by Pier Carlo Padoan has completed around 77% of medium and long-term issues (251 billion against the 280 billion announced). In the first 8 months of the year, the average issue cost fell to 1,4% (0,5% for BoTs and just over 2% for medium-long maturities). This is an improvement of about 60 basis points compared to the 2013 average: a figure which, with these premises, is in any case destined to improve in 2015.
