“I am deeply sorry, tomorrow we will vote on the United Kingdom's exit from Europe without an agreement”: said Prime Minister Theresa May in the evening, immediately after her second resounding defeat in Parliament on Brexit: 391 no against 242 yes. Voting will therefore return today in Westminster: this time against the option of a no-deal exit. The pound, hit yesterday by the British Parliament's no to the new version of the separation agreement from the European Union presented by the government, traded this morning at 0,862 against the euro and 1,3088 against the dollar, a very slight recovery.
The political crisis in the United Kingdom injects a note of concern into all markets, balancing the effect of the cooling of inflation in the USA which removes the risk of a rise in interest rates. This too favors the rise of the euro against the US currency: this morning in Asia the single currency trades at 1,128.
US INFLATION DOWN, RATES RISE FAR AWAY
Almost all Asian stocks declined. The Tokyo Nikkei (-1,2%) was in the red, held back by the decline for the fourth month in a row in machine tool orders. Also down was the Hang Seng of Hong Kong (-0,6%) and the CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen lists (-0,6%). Kospi of Seoul -0,7%.
On Wall Street, Boeing's landslide continued (-6,5%, -15% in two days), after which, with the exception of the USA, the authorities of almost all over the world decided to suspend the flights of the plane involved in the recent crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia. The Dow Jones index thus falls by 0,37%.
Instead, the cooling of inflation favored the starting point of the S&P 500 (+0,31%), once again one step away from the critical threshold of 2.800 points (2.791,71), and the Nasdaq (+0,44%).
The cooling of inflation recorded in the United States last month (+0,1% after +0,2% in January) widens the Federal Reserve's room for manoeuvre. Right now, futures anticipate a modest probability of a quarter-percentage point rate hike early next year, with borrowing rates unchanged throughout 2018. The 2,61-year Treasury Note yields 2,5979% ( minimum of 15), the 10-year yield has fallen by 15 basis points since the beginning of March. The yield curve flattened again, with the differential between the two-year and the XNUMX-year yield down to XNUMX basis points.
OIL RISES: RIYAD TOWARDS CUT IN PRODUCTION
Brent oil is up 0,3% to 66,8 dollars a barrel Brent (57,17 the WTI), not far from the highs since October 2018. Saudi Arabia intends to lower from next month daily production below 10 million barrels and to reduce exports to just 7 million barrels, despite the fierce hostility of Donald Trump.
Gold trades at 1.304 dollars an ounce, up 0,2%, +0,6% yesterday.
LEAK OPENING EXPECTED IN EUROPE. YESTERDAY MILAN -0,03%
Futures anticipate a sluggish start of the European stock exchanges this morning, yesterday distracted by the high-voltage confrontation on Brexit.
Piazza Affari was essentially flat, -0,03% to 20.631 points. Exchanges are on the rise: the value was 1,84 billion euros (against 1,68 on the eve).
The other markets in the Eurozone also saw little change: Frankfurt, which reports a paltry -0,17%, and Madrid -0,11%. Above parity Paris (+0,08%).
The London Stock Exchange rose (+0,29%) against the decline of the pound after the British Attorney General. Geoffrey Cox rejected the guarantees given to Prime Minister Theresa May by the president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker: "The legal risk" of the United Kingdom of remaining stuck in the Irish backstop, he said, "remains unchanged".
In the meantime, good news has arrived from the economy across the Channel. January GDP grew by 0,5%, the largest increase since December 2016, in contrast to the 0,4% decline in December. But the trend is distorted by the Brexit effect: companies are continuing to stockpile to prevent the risks of a chaotic Brexit.
SPREAD TO 249, BTP AUCTION TODAY
The bond market is solid. The spread stopped at 249 points, not far from previous levels (250 points). The 2,54-year rate also fell slightly, closing the session at 2,56% (XNUMX% on the previous day).
The Treasury has sold all the 6,5 billion euro of one-year BOTs offered at auction, with rates still falling. The average yield dropped to 0,060% from the 0,181% of the February placement. The bid was 1,51 times the amount offered, down from 1,65 previously.
Attention is now focused on today's medium-long term auction: the Treasury is making available up to 7,75 billion euros in three securities: the new 3-year BTP (July 2022), coupon 1%, the Btp at 7 years and the one at 20 years.
Yields are expected to rise for shorter maturities and for 20-year bonds and instead fall for 7-year bonds.
UNICREDIT LAUNCHES A BILLION PERPETUAL
Unicredit -0,2% took advantage of the more relaxed climate on the market. The bank has mandated a pool of banks to issue a perpetual bond. The bond, with an initial amount of one billion, is callable starting from 3 June 2026 and then every five years. Strong requests: 5 billion from 300 investors. The bond is part of the so-called additional tier 1. The yield is around 8%.
JUVENTUS BOOK A CHAMPIONS RALLY
It is not difficult to predict who today will be the great protagonist, both in the stock market and in corporate bond trading Juventus, which was helped by the pessimism of Piazza Affari: the club's title dropped yesterday by 2,7% in view of the Champions League match which, on the contrary, ended with Juventus' success (and relative passing of the round).
Contrasted session for the banking sector (-0,39%). Banco Bpm, among the worst stocks, loses 1,95%. Still down, after the turnaround at the top, Banca Ifis leaving 3,93% on the ground. Bper Banca (-0,5%) and Ubi Banca (-0,8%) also fell. Intesa Sanpaolo advances (+0,3%).
RAIN OF SALES ON TIM AND TOD'S
Rain of sales on Tim (-5,7%) who abruptly reversed course after the opening up to trigger the temporary stop of trading. The market is looking at the end of the purchases by CDP now close to the target of 10% of the capital to be reached by March 29, the date of the meeting. Meanwhile, the proxy fighter ISS advised shareholders not to vote for Vivendi's proposals.
Tod's also fell vertically: -3,23% after the accounts. The company closed 2018 with Ebitda down to 118,3 million euros, seven million less than analysts' expectations. In the second half, profitability fell to 10,7%, about 150 basis points less than expected, due to the increase in marketing expenses. Debt is also higher than estimates, which rose due to an increase in inventories.
Ferragamo is also down -2%.
Recordati (+1,9%) and Campari (+1,81%) closed above parity: on the latter company Banca Imi confirmed the hold opinion but the target price went from 7,3 euro to 5,1 euro . On Atlantia (+0,55%) Société Générale raised its target price from 22,1 to 23,3 euros, confirming the hold recommendation.
MEDIASET GETTING READY FOR THE EUROPEAN TV CENTER
Mediaset -0,71%: Fininvest has renounced the dividend given for certain by analysts and introduces increased voting rights in the statute. These are moves that suggest an acceleration of the negotiations for the creation of a European TV hub.
Technogym (+3,9%) is approaching all-time highs. Enav +3% after the positive accounts. Among the stocks in evidence also Molmed (+7%)
Cir (-2,4%) announced that it will merge into the parent company Cofide: the operation leads to an increase in the free float and a decrease in costs.
Giglio Group (+2%) transferred its media assets to the Spanish Vertice 360: a paper operation that will lead the former to have 5,95% of the latter.
