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Brexit, pandemic, oil and Bayer make the stock markets nervous

Despite the leap of Stm and the new exploit of Banco Bpm which pushed the Ftse Mib into positive territory (+0,2%), the markets remain fragile and volatile due to the concurrence of at least four elements of uncertainty

Brexit, pandemic, oil and Bayer make the stock markets nervous

The bullishness of the markets was challenged by the plunge in oil this afternoon. For the European lists, the ending is mixed: Frankfurt loses 0,3%, penalized by the collapse of Bayer (-12,6%). Progress is moderate and below the session highs for Milan +0,24%, Paris +0,4%, Madrid +0,2% and London +0,25%. Wall Street acts as a barrier to the sales which, after a tonic start, has begun to slow down, but at the moment remains well above parity, supported by the belief that Democrats and Republicans will eventually find an agreement to approve the aid plan for families and businesses.

Leading the rises were the consumer discretionary sector and the information technology index. The declines start from the energy index which drops 2,7% after a drop of 20% in the third quarter. Furthermore, the risk of volatility remains high with less than 5 weeks to go before the presidential elections and with the fear that the outcome will be contested by the loser.

A good dose of uncertainty then remains due to the constant growth of coronavirus infections also in Europe. Italy, although out of the eye of the storm, keeps its guard up and Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte confirms what, until now, was only a guess. “We will go to parliament to ask for the state of emergency to be extended until January 31st”. Again in Europe, the tug of war between the EU and the UK on the methods of Brexit is getting worse, so much so that the leaders of Brussels have decided to initiate legal action against London.

"The European Commission has today sent a letter of formal notice to the United Kingdom for breaching its obligations under the Withdrawal Agreement," announced Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The clash weighs on the pound, which returns to the red against the euro and the dollar. The single currency also strengthened against the greenback, bringing the exchange rate back to the 1,175 area.

Gold goes up to 1907 dollars an ounce (+1,1%), while black gold plummets. Brent is down 5,2% and trades at 40,09 dollars a barrel; the Wti loses 5,3%, 38,10 dollars a barrel. Crude is affected by lower demand forecasts, due to the increase in cases of Covid-19, and by the increase in production of OPEC countries last month; the hopes of an agreement in Congress on the new fiscal stimulus plan are only partially counteracting the pressure.

In Piazza Affari the most penalized are the shares of the three big names in the sector, starting with Eni, -3,38%. The six-legged dog today approved the possible issue of one or more subordinated hybrid bonds, to be placed with institutional investors, for a total amount not exceeding 5 billion euros or the equivalent in another currency, to be issued in one or more tranches by 30 June 2022. The issues pursue the objective of financing future needs and maintaining a balanced financial structure. The loans are intended to be listed on one or more regulated markets.

Down Saipem -3,27 and Tenaris -2,56%. In the oil sector Saras, +6,55%, a company owned by the Moratti family which, however, lost around 67% during the year, bucked the trend. In the rest of the list Leonardo, -2,44%, and Atlantia, -2,16% are down. The latter remains at the mercy of the negotiations with the government and the risk of a revocation of the concessions for Aspi is becoming more and more concrete. A council of ministers will meet within ten days to decide on the dossier, but if there is no progress, the ax will be triggered.

Queen of the Ftse Mib is Stm, +6,97%, rewarded for better-than-expected accounts and after announcing a strong increase in demand in the third quarter, opening up to a possible exceeding of the guidance for 2020. Among the banks, it remains well bought Banco Bpm +4,15%, always at the center of rumors about possible partners in a process of consolidation of the sector. This time the press rumors about an interest by Credit Agricole are multiplying, but the ex popular denies the contacts.

Leap forward for Diasorin, +2,85%, which obtained the go-ahead from the Food and Drug Administration for the marketing of six hepatitis B tests in the USA and for the emergency use of a test for antibodies from Covid 19.

In evidence Exor +3,66%. Out of the main basket shines Reno De Medici (+7,33%) after the signing of preliminary contracts for the acquisition of 100% of four Spanish companies. The session was positive for bonds: the spread between Italian and German ten-year bonds fell to 136 basis points and the BTP yield fell to 0,83%. 

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