The future of the UK is enclosed in 500 pages. After months of negotiations and tensions, the day of truth on Brexit has arrived. London and Brussels have put pen to paper a very detailed draft agreement containing the rules on a historic divorce that will radically change the face of Europe. A text that also includes a temporary agreement on Northern Ireland, an issue that seemed capable of undermining any possibility of an agreement between the parties.
But if the truce between the United Kingdom and the EU seems to have finally been reached and the British Government has given the first go-ahead to the draft agreement with the EU, there is no certainty as to what will happen in Parliament where the Brexit hawks could turn against you the measures envisaged by the draft. The House of Commons to put everything on the line by voting against the ratification of the agreement, even if yesterday May scored a point in her favor with the Government's yes to the draft.
BREXIT: THE DRAFT AGREEMENT AND THE IRISH QUESTION
According to rumors, the draft would provide for Great Britain to remain in the European customs union until the Irish question is resolved. In parallel, Northern Ireland will continue to be part of a kind of single market and more border controls will be put in place in the Irish Sea. No expiry date would therefore be established.
The draft technical understanding "reached" in Brussels on Brexit "significantly moves" the United Kingdom towards "what the people voted for" in the 2016 referendum, May said in Question Time to the Commons, perhaps trying to convince the his to regroup.
But in case the rumors are confirmed, i Brexiters more convinced may not react well. For months the Torys have been repeating that remaining in the customs union would mean betraying the "values" of Brexit and the vote of the citizens of the United Kingdom. And it is precisely on this issue that the May government could gamble for survival in the next few years.
At this juncture it must be remembered that the purpose of the negotiations, at least in words, was to avoid the reconstruction of a border between Northern Ireland - one of the four constituent nations of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland - and the Republic of Ireland – Member State of the European Union. That border existed until 1998, when the parties barely managed to reach an agreement known as the "Good Friday Agreement". It's about 400 km of border which would represent the only land border of the Kingdom (besides Gibraltar, of course).
BREXIT: GOVERNMENT SPLIT, MORE RESIGNATIONS ARE COMING
Tensions are running high in Downing Street. The Conservative government met at 15pm (14pm London) to review the draft Brexit deal. However, the premises are far from encouraging.
The fear is that, after the resignation of minister Jo Johnson (brother of Boris) other members of the government could also decide to leave their office in open dissent with the line taken by May. In detail, to resign - already today - could be the minister of Labour, Esther McVey, and that of International Development, Penny Mordaunt.
Voting in favor of the agreement should instead be Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Michael Gove and Geoffrey Cox.
BREXIT: AGREEMENT AT RISK IN PARLIAMENT
Even if the deal manages to overcome the ax of the Brexiters hardliners of the Conservative government, according to the English newspapers, appears more probable by the hour Parliament's vote against which should be convened on December 6th.
In the House of Commons it's just a matter of mathematics: 320 votes are needed to get the agreement ratified, but May seems to have lost the support of both the hawks led by Boris and the pro-Remain dovish, which includes at least a dozen MPs with Jo Johnson. Not only to vote against there could also be the After, the Northern Irish party which to date guarantees a narrow majority and which has already defined the rumors about the draft as "unacceptable", and Scottish Conservatives, who have signed a letter sent to Theresa May announcing that they will not support a deal that provides for a total surrender on fishing.
On balance therefore, there are no numbers in Parliament to ratify the agreement. Regardless of that if the May cabinet will give its ok to the agreement, an extraordinary summit on Brexit will be held on November 25th. Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said this to parliamentarians in Dublin, according to various online media outlets.
