The British Pound that in just three days it lost 2%, as if it were an emerging currency, is the litmus test of what is happening and its weakness is combined with an increase in volatility on share prices. A volatility that runs the risk of being costly because, as the example of the Turkish lira shows, when a currency weakens, the race for currency hedging affects the balance sheets of listed companies and inevitably their specific weight on the Stock Exchange. But even more it is necessary to evaluate the effects on all those commercial contracts on which the exchange rate variable ends up weighing on future commercial flows and therefore on total productivity.
Added to this is a real estate market in great crisis not only due to Brexit but also due to the flight of Russians and Turks, therefore of the highest level of tourism from emerging countries also affected by the effects of the trade war and the vulnerability of their home currencies.
Political uncertainty and volatility peaks unite the two sides of the ocean and involve not only the Anglo-Saxon markets but inevitably also the emerging ones. And in the meantime, May watches helplessly as some members of the Government flee and in her statements, commenting on the lack of agreement with the European Union, the hypothesis of a second referendum has begun to creep in.
The draft agreement of the British negotiators of 500 pages does not make inroads and Teresa May resorts to a vote of confidence, to avoid further leaks, but the British Government remains in a situation of total paralysis because even the supporters of Brexit at all costs by now are reduced to a third of the majority party.
The Irish DUP then threatened new elections but realizing a real risk of Corbyn's affirmation and being penalized for having launched a costly and late proposal, they immediately withdrew the hypothesis. So if the Premier Teresa May appears weakened we do not see on the horizon any politician with a strong consensus and above all the bearer of a winning strategy or solution.
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Among the most probable hypotheses, therefore, the dinner mentioned above sees the operators converge on the idea of a stay for May to be able to ask for a postponement of the application of art. 50 and therefore of the effects of the historic divorce and induce a new referendum to get out of a situation which, as feared since the day before Cameron's failed bet for the British, would bring only serious trouble to the economy and to a welfare state already on the ropes.
The evening thus conditioned by an unexpected Brexit stalemate (given that the market was pricing in an agreement in principle but not a political crisis of this magnitude!), and with a British government in crisis it was a success because fundraising for emerging countries has set the record for the last ten years, over 1,5 million British pounds raised for projects in India aimed at children, while in the meantime a trader who is passionate about the oceans explains how fauna is reduced by 60% of vertebrate animals in less than 10 years.
How to say the foundations of the house are on a landslide but let's worry about redoing the roof to shelter from the bad weather or, better, let's have a new referendum on Brexit, leaving the EU at the mercy of the sovereign wave and without protecting the EU from a thousand other Brexits!
