There will be no deal. It is not yet known how the United Kingdom will leave the European Union or when Brexit will become a reality, but the House of Commons seems to want to rule out the worst case scenario.
BREXIT: THE PARLIAMENT EXCLUDES THE NO DEAL
In the night between Wednesday 3 and Thursday 4 April, the British MPs approved a amendment requiring Prime Minister Theresa May to ask for a further extension of Article 50 to prevent the worst case scenario from happening on 12 April, that of an exit without an agreement from the European Union, which would have very serious consequences on the national economy (but also on that of the EU countries).
The bipartisan amendment, tabled by Conservative Oliver Letwin and Labor Yvette Cooper was approved after a heart-pounding session with one vote away (313 votes in favour, 312 against). Decisive was the decision of the Speaker of the Chamber, John Bercow (the same one who had forbidden the third vote on the agreement with the EU due to a precedent dating back to 1600) forced to say Yes or No, given that the vote between the MPs ended in a draw. The amendment will now have to be examined by the House of Lords, where, however, no surprises are expected.
Is the No deal therefore averted? Probably yes, but it is not said. It depends on what May will ask of the EU Council on April 10 and what the 27 leaders of the Member States will decide.
BREXIT: THE LAST CHANCE FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM
Let's start with "it depends what May will ask". The European Union has repeatedly stated that it is not willing to change the agreement or to grant yet another short extension. In fact, we recall that Brexit should have taken place on 29 March and that during the last EU Council the leaders of the Member States, not without controversy, had established that if May were able to present a new proposal (or get the agreement approved rejected three times by Westminster) by 12 April, Brexit would be postponed to May 22nd. Without proposals or agreements, the No deal will arrive in 8 days.
Despite the vote of the British Parliament, the last word on the modalities of the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union will be up to the EU Council which will meet on Wednesday 10th April. Nothing is therefore taken for granted and May will have to play her cards well.
BREXIT: THE THREE OPTIONS ON THE TABLE
At this point, given the imminent deadline, there are only three options left on the table:
- No deal: it seems the least probable hypothesis, but it still remains valid. If the EU Council rejects the alternatives proposed by May, Brexit will arrive on April 12 without an agreement.
- Long extension: Member state leaders have announced that they will only say yes to a postponement proposal if a long extension is foreseen. How long? At least 9 months, with the consequent participation of the United Kingdom in the European elections at the end of May. May has repeatedly stated that she is against it, but it could be the only option left to avoid the "catastrophe".
- Corbyn-May Agreement: a few days ago, surprisingly, the Premier said she was willing to negotiate with the leader of the Labor party to try to find an agreement that would be able to obtain the joint Yes of Labor and Conservatives. The two have already met twice and negotiations between the two parties are continuing quite frenetically, according to the British press. Finding a meeting point still appears very difficult. According to the UK media, the guidelines of an agreement between Corbyn and May could provide for the permanence of the United Kingdom in the customs union and alignment with the single market, two of Corbyn's fundamental requests. May, on the other hand, would be able to prevail on the end of the free movement of citizens and on the abandonment of the hypothesis of holding a second referendum. Provided that a compromise is reached by 12 April, the green light from the European Union will also be needed in this case. If leaders approve, Brexit will come on May 22nd.
