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Brexit: free trade with the EU is safe

The agreement between London and Brussels allows goods to be exchanged without duties or quantitative constraints: in 2019, the UK exported 43% of goods to the EU and Italy recorded the third largest trade surplus (12 billion). Restrictions instead for the mobility of people

Brexit: free trade with the EU is safe

The Brexit deal reached last December avoids jeopardizing trade between the UK and the 27 EU countries. In 2019, the UK exported 43% of its goods to the EU, making it far more vulnerable in a no-deal scenario. With the hard Brexit, the duties established by the World Trade Organization would be applied again to British goods. And compared to other European partners, Italy would have been less exposed: last year, just over 5% of exports were directed to London. However, it was Rome itself that had the third largest trade surplus (12 billion euros a year), which has increased in recent years, and which today makes the United Kingdom the fifth largest importer of Italian goods. Among the leading sectors of Made in Italy, the most exposed to new duties would have been instrumental mechanics, textiles, chemicals and agri-food.

From January the United Kingdom left the single market and the European customs union: this means that restrictions on the mobility of people have taken over with a visa system already announced some time ago by London. The British government will also have a free hand in applying trade agreements with non-EU countries, already finalized with 29 countries and regions of the world already party to agreements with Brussels, but under the same conditions as before and not better for London. Furthermore, the EU and the UK have negotiated a free trade agreement which allows British goods to enter the single European market without any duties and quantitative constraints, and vice versa (while some customs formalities will come into force with possible queues at customs). Almost entirely excluded is the services sector (including financial ones), although these are of significant importance for London. Finally, in the agreement there is room for collaboration in other strategic fields (such as defense and intelligence), which can be extended and deepened in the future. ISPI underlines how the three points on which the EU and the UK discussed were fishing rights, the rules on state aid and the governance of the agreement.

The first issue had been strongly politicized by the Brexiteers and by PM Johnson himself, who had repeatedly indicated in the presence of European vessels in British waters an affront to the sovereignty of one's country. But in the end an agreement was found: for the next five and a half years, European fishing vessels will be able to continue fishing in British waters even if the quantity of catches is gradually reduced.

As regards the second point, the level playing field, Brussels fears that in the future London may promote less stringent standards (for example in the phytosanitary or environmental fields) compared to those that the EU imposes on its businesses, with the result of unfair competition. This could also happen if the United Kingdom granted its own companies more generous state aid than European aid (which must comply with Community rules): the agreement provides that London may deviate from European regulations, but not to the point of causing damage to free and fair competition.

The third point, the governance of the agreement, i.e. the procedures that are initiated if one of the two parties believes that the other has engaged in unfair behavior or refuses to respect the agreements. Here Brussels has obtained a particularly streamlined and rapid arbitration mechanism in the event that future differences arise on the agreement and the possibility of applying sanctions in the form of duties if the United Kingdom deviates from fair competition or does not respect the agreements (and vice versa ).

In any case, the rules for being able to travel to the United Kingdom are changing for European citizens, especially for those who want to travel for long periods of time, for example for work. The new rules, which come into force because of Brexit and not the deal on post-Brexit relations, require citizens of the 27 EU countries (along with all citizens of the rest of the world) to apply for an approved visa on the basis a strict points system: almost 40% depend on having a job offer from a British employer, and another 18% on whether the salary exceeds £25.600 a year. All at a rather high cost: between 1.300 and 2.300 euros per application. For more information, see the UK Visas and Immigration government page.

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