Yet another twist in London. While the British Parliament's vote, postponed to January 21, hangs menacingly on Brexit, tonight the United Kingdom could find itself without a Prime Minister. The Conservative Party to which the British Premier, Theresa May belongs, has managed to reach the 48 letters necessary to activate the no confidant vote. Translated: May may be disheartened by her own party tonight.
MAY, THE NUMBERS FOR FAILURE
In fact, according to the provisions of the Tories regulation, the no-confidence procedure can be requested by at least 15% of the members of Parliament. To sign, among many, Jacob Rees-Moog, who already last November had tried to request no confidence but without reaching the necessary number of signatures.
The vote is scheduled for this evening, between 6 and 8, and the votes will be "immediately counted and the results announced as soon as possible". The Downing Street tenant will need 158 votes (out of 315) to stay in the saddle and keep the leadership of the party for another year and above all the Prime Minister's seat. But the British press does not rule out "a step backwards" even if May manages to win. In fact, if the total number of unfavorable votes turns out to be "significant enough in numbers", the conservative leader could still decide to leave, leaving the historic turning point that the Kingdom is preparing to undertake in the hands of her successor: Brexit.
Based on initial calculations – 20 Tory MPs have already announced their intention to vote no-confidence according to the Guardian – May should do it, but no one feels like ruling out the possibility of yet another twist in a saga that threatens to bring an entire country to its knees.
The United Kingdom therefore risks plunging into unprecedented political chaos.
“I will contest the vote of no confidence with everything I have. I served the national interest and we have an obligation to carry out the popular will expressed in the Brexit referendum”. May said in Downing Street after the announcement of the vote of no confidence.
MAY: WHAT COULD HAPPEN WITH BREXIT
If May succumbs to distrust from her own party, another Tory leader is expected to bid for the post of prime minister. The current Premier would remain in office for the transition period (about six weeks) waiting for the new number one to be chosen.
In this context, the process of leaving the European Union could be postponed beyond the established date of 29 March 2019, further lengthening the ongoing Brexit trickle.
WHAT STAGE IS BREXIT AT?
It should be emphasized that yesterday, December 11, May met Angela Merkel and Jean Claude Juncker in order to obtain some "further reassurance" on Brexit and above all on the now famous backstop, the binding mechanism to safeguard the barrier-free border between Ireland and Northern Ireland which would be precisely the cause of the request for no confidence from conservative Brexiters and which could lead the British Parliament to reject the agreement reached with Brussels on January 21st. After the meetings, the leaders did not make any statements, but throughout the day the statements were clear: “The agreement cannot be touched”.
In her speech, May instead reiterated that she considers an agreement with the EU "reachable" even if the British government cannot afford to create "uncertainty": an eventuality that would arise if the possibility were to arise of the Labor Party taking over the negotiations with Brussels. “The people – added the British prime minister – want the government to go ahead with Brexit and I am ready to finish the job”.
