Real rates are falling, the economic situation is stalling. Even in the USA, already a happy island in the global economy. There are now too many signals in this direction, including the employment front. New claims for unemployment benefits rose to 294 against a forecast of 270, the highest in more than a year.
In Europe, meanwhile, industrial production fell for the second month in a row: -0,8% in March in the euro area, -0,5% in the community of 28. But even here the signals, thanks to the threat of Brexit, are not are good: the Bank of England yesterday not only cut its growth estimates, but also painted the scenario in gloomy colors in the event of a victory for the anti-EU: "A much lower rate of growth", i.e. an increase in the unemployment and inflation, a further depreciation of the pound which risks being "large" and a decline in share prices.
ASIA CLOSES LOWER, KOREA NOT LOWERING RATES
Asian stock markets are also starting to close downwards, under the pressure of the strong yen, a "safe haven" in the weakest economic cycles, and of the fluctuating trend of oil: first rising to the highs of the last six months, then traded at 47 dollars per barrel (-1,2%) in the Brent version, Wti at 46,1 dollars (-0,9%).
In Tokyo, the Nikkei index falls by one percentage point. Weak Hong Kong (-0,5%) and Sidney (-0,5%), slightly up Shanghai (+0,3%) and Shenzhen (+0,6%). The Korean stock market was also down (-0,5%) following the decision by the Central Bank to keep rates unchanged, despite government pressure for a cut.
THE APPLE (-32% IN ONE YEAR) RISKS ABOVE ALPHABET
In short, disturbing news, but which distances the prospect of a rise in US interest rates, given that Janet Yellen has repeatedly declared that she is looking in particular at the dynamics of employment. A sort of anti-downward policy for the equity markets, severely tested by the risk of recession.
Thus holds the Standard & Poor's index (-0,02%), as well as the Dow Jones (+0,05%). The decline unleashes its energies on the Nasdaq (-0,49%), held back by the fall of one of the most popular stocks: Apple -2,35% to $90,32 (-32% in one year) at its lowest since June 2014 , at risk, as happened in February, of overtaking by Alphabet: the former Google, practically unchanged, in fact capitalizes 492,4 billion, only 300 million less than the 492,2 billion of Apple, affected by the drop in i Phone sales.
Yet in this depressed context one of the most important mergers of all time is maturing: the German giant Bayer (-4%) is preparing to launch an offer on Monsanto (+9%), courted by another big German, Basf (-2,4 .40%). Bayer is ready to spend XNUMX billion dollars, more or less half of its stock market value, for the US agrochemical group, which last year failed to take over the Swiss Syngenta.
EUROPEAN MARKETS WEAK. TELECOM ACCOUNTS TODAY
Once again this morning, judging by the performance of futures, European lists are destined for a weak opening, after yesterday's declines in the German Stock Exchange (-1,13%), Paris (-0%) and London, frozen by the Bank of England report (-54%).
A breath of fresh air in Piazza Affari for the banks. But the Ftse Mib index still closed in the red (-0,26%), conditioned in the afternoon by the decline in the US market. Strong volatility: from an intraday high at 17.962 to a low at 17,555 before closing at 17.651 points.
In the spotlight today the accounts of Telecom Italia (yesterday -1%), the first official act of the Cattaneo management.
THE TREASURY HAS (ALMOST) FULL OF BTP AT THE AUCTION
The protagonist of the bond market was the Italian Treasury which yesterday placed just under 7,5 billion of medium-long term bonds, with rising yields for 7 and 15 year maturities. The Italian 1,503-year rate rose to 1,464% from 136% at the previous close, while the spread with the same maturity of the Bund rose to 135 basis points, just above the XNUMX basis points at yesterday's close.
Profit-taking on the German Bund pushed the 0,15-year yield to 0,12% from 7,20%. New low of the year for the yield of the Greek government bond at XNUMX% on the expectations of an agreement with creditors.
PROFITS BELOW EXPECTED, GENERALI FLOPS
They weighed on Piazza Affari the disappointing data from Generali: -4% to 12,59 euros on volumes over double the average. The company announced first-quarter net income of 588 million euros, down 13,8% on a year earlier and lower than the consensus of analysts (600 million). The Lion's stock also suffered the shame of the suspension due to excessive reductions in mid-morning to a minimum of 12,46 euros, down by more than 5%.
The confirmation of the industrial plan targets and the promise of an improvement in shareholder remuneration were not enough to support the stock. The negative performance of the financial markets and the lower realization of capital gains on investments were more effective.
BROKER SINKS TOD'S AFTER ACCOUNTS. SAFILO IN DISRUPTION
The alarm bell is also ringing for luxury due to Tod's accounts, much worse than the already conservative estimates (-8,5% to 55,9 euros, on the lows of the last six years). Immediately after the publication of the data on revenues for the first quarter (-3,1% q 249,6 million) the failures of the brokers rained down.
Bryan Garnier cut the rating to Sell from Neutral, target down to 60 euros from 78 euros. JP Morgan reduced the group's target price to 64 euros from the previous 68 euros. Credit Suisse has cut rating on Underperform. Target at 55 euros from 65 euros.
– Strong cut also by Raymond James who brought the target price to 55 euros from the previous 63 euros with an Underperform rating. The luxury group has warned that the consensus of analysts of a 4% growth in revenues today appears "a bit challenging".
Ynap +029% before the accounts announced last night signal that an expansion of sales of 14%. "at a growth rate of sales of Gucci bags and Jimmy Choo shoes halved compared to a year ago" notes the Financial Times. Sales also at Luxottica (-0,7%) and Ferragamo (-1,2%).
Yesterday Safilo was once again among the weakest stocks with a drop of 4,3% which plunges the price to its lowest level in the last three and a half years at 6,405 euros. It had left 9% on the ground Wednesday. Banca Aletti reduced the target price to 6 euro from 7 euro, confirming the Underperform recommendation. Kepler-Cheuvreux cut the target price to 7 euros from 7,50 euros. Reduce judgment confirmed.
BANCO POPOLARE AND UNICREDIT RAISE THEIR HEADS
Day of recovery, finally, for bank stocks. Banco Popolare closes the rise of 1,6% (-9% on Wednesday). Pop. Milan +0,7%. Giuseppe Castagna, managing director of the popular Milanese company, confirmed that the pre-established exchange rates will be respected regardless of the stock market turmoil.
Down Pop. Emilia (-1,5%).”Unipol is an important strategic partner of Bper. We also have Arca Vita where Unipol has 70% and we have 20%, so it's a strategic relationship for us and we think that Unipol could be an important anchor investor in our share base' said Alessandro Vandelli during the conference call . The report, however, will not pass through Unipol Banca.
Unicredit also rebounds, rising by 2,7%, almost all up in the final stages. Monte Paschi -2,2%, Intesa -1%. Unchanged Ubi which closed the first quarter of 2016 with a consolidated profit below analysts' estimates at 42,1 million euros, a decrease of 44,6% compared to the same period last year.
LEAP FORWARD OF AUTOGRILL, ASTALDI AND FINCANTIERI
Eni closed the session up 0,9%, Tenaris +1%, Saipem +3,8%. Autogrill +3,6% after announcing better-than-expected results. Prysmian still on the rise (+1,35%): Credit Suisse raised its target price to 23 from 21 euro, confirming the outperform rating in the light of strong cash flow generation and growth.
Fincantieri +10%, after the return to profit. Astaldi +9% after being awarded works worth one billion, in consortium with the Ghella construction company, for the Italian section of the Brenner railway tunnel. Moody's downgraded its rating from 'B1' to 'B2', with a negative outlook.
