If Britain leaves the EU without a divorce agreement, realizing the scenario of a Brexit uncontrolled, the pound could drop between 15% and 25% and every year around 100 foreign nationals could be forced to leave the UK. In the event of an agreement, however, the pound could appreciate by 5%. It is one of the scenarios mapped out by the Bank of England.
The British central bank specifies that these are scenarios and not forecasts as too many elements of the negotiations between the parties are not yet sufficiently clear. The British banking system, continues the BoE, is in any case strong enough to resist even a disorderly exit from the Union.
BREXIT: THE POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES ON THE BRITISH GDP
One of the most controversial issues is the impact that the Brexit deal could have on British GDP. Again according to the BoE, in the event of an agreement that maintains close cooperation between the two with access for the UK to the common market, British GDP could grow by 1,75% more by the end of 2023 compared to the November projections .
In the case of a "disruptive" scenario, in which customs barriers are suddenly introduced between the UK and the EU and no trade agreements are made for 5 years - with Great Britain repeating the existing agreements acquired thanks to its previous membership of the EU - British GDP could fall by up to 7,75% by the end of 2023.
Finally, in the event of an uncontrolled exit, the UK would lose the trade deals it can currently rely on with non-EU countries through its EU membership. In this scenario, in which the British customs infrastructure would also find it difficult to handle the increased workload, the GDP could record a maximum loss of 10,5%.
GOVERNMENT CALCULATIONS
The British government has also published a report on the same subject, underlining that Brexit will have a cost whatever the scenario for leaving the European Union. In particular, an uncontrolled exit would produce a 9,3% drop in GDP in 15 years.
Thanks to the agreement reached by the May Government, however, Brexit should translate into a negative impact equal to 3,95% of the British GDP, assuming that the United Kingdom is able to conclude all the free trade agreements that the British Government intends to sign.
COUNT MEETS BARNIER
“Pending the completion of the ratification procedures of the Withdrawal Agreement in the EU and in the United Kingdom, the importance of continuing, both at European and national level and with a unified approach, the preparations also in case of withdrawal was confirmed without agreement". This is the position that emerged, according to reports from the Prime Minister, during the meeting between the Italian Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, and the EU Chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, to discuss developments in the process of leaving the Kingdom United by the EU after the agreement of the European Council of 25 November on the Withdrawal Agreement and on the Political Declaration on the framework for Future Relations.
Among the topics addressed "of direct Italian interest - Palazzo Chigi announces - the protection of citizens' rights, with particular attention to the most vulnerable categories, and the protection of geographical indications. Chief negotiator Barnier confirmed the validity of the agreements reached"
In a hearing before the House and Senate Foreign Affairs and EU Policy Committees, Barnier said that “this is the only possible agreement, the best possible agreement, following very difficult negotiations. I cannot comment on any options after 11 December”, when the British Parliament will express its opinion on the agreement between the EU and the Government, “but we have an interest in having an agreement with the United Kingdom”, concluded Barnier.
