Vaccines, monetary policies, quarterly reports: many issues, all together, are confusing investors today and holding back the markets. European stocks closed slightly higher, swamped by an avalanche of positive corporate numbers, but held back by the uncertain mood on Wall Street. Milan rises by 0,13%, driven by the banks and penalized by the slip of Telecom (-5,52%). Paris appreciates by 0,28% (SocGen +5,46%, thanks to better-than-expected accounts; little movement instead EssilorLuxottica, +0,16%); Frankfurt +0,21%; Madrid +0,19%; London +0,5%.
Overseas, the New York Stock Exchange proceeds in no particular order: the Dow Jones improves on its all-time high touched yesterday, while the pharmaceutical sector retreats and stocks such as Moderna, Pfizer, Biontech suffer in particular after Joe Biden's openness to the suspension of patents on anti Covid vaccines. The US orientation was officially presented to the WTO, while the EU is expected to discuss it at the informal summit of EU leaders in Oporto over the weekend. Times do not seem short and the pharmaceutical industry opposes it, fearing that such a move could set a dangerous precedent and damage profits and innovation.
Meanwhile, the macroeconomic data provide new ideas for recovery and for a rotation in equity purchases. American workers filing for unemployment benefits for the first time fell to 498.000 (-92) in the last week, the best figure since the start of the Covid era, but the total number of people receiving aid from the various programs state and federal governments, including those for public health emergencies, remain above 16 million. Furthermore, productivity in the United States increased by 2021% in the first quarter of 5,4, against expectations for +4,5%.
We look at these data to understand how the Fed will be able to move in the near future, despite the many reassurances for an accommodating policy for a long time to come. The spotlights remain on central bankers in the US, but also in Europe. Today, in Bulletin of the ECB, we read that the progress of the vaccination campaigns "should lay the foundations for a recovery of economic activity over the course of 2021, although for a complete recovery it will be necessary to wait some more time", in a context that remains of "high uncertainty" . Therefore "the timing of the easing of containment measures is not yet clear and further adverse developments associated with the pandemic cannot be ruled out". Furthermore, "it is probable that overall inflation will increase further in the coming months", but "the indicators of longer-term inflation expectations obtained from the markets remain at low levels" and lead us to confirm "the very accommodative stance of monetary policy" .
Finally, in today's meeting, the Bank of England left the reference rates unchanged at an all-time low (0,1%) and the amount of the bond purchase program at 895 billion pounds, but said it will slow down the bond purchase program to 3,4 billion a week between May and August, up from the current pace of 4,4 billion. "This operational decision should not be interpreted - underlines a note - as a change in terms of monetary policy". The central institute also increased its estimates for economic growth in 2021 to 7,25% from 5,0% in the February forecast, but reduced those for 2022 growth to 5,75% from 7,25% .
On the currency side the euro appreciates against the dollar and the pound, with the exchange rate respectively in the area of 1,205 and 0,8683. Among the raw materials, the rally of metals continues: silver and copper are flying, but gold too rises today by 1,68% to 1814,25 dollars an ounce. Oil, on the other hand, weakened, with Brent down by 0,7% to 68,50 dollars a barrel. In Piazza Affari the session is positive for the banks, driven by the good quarterly Unicredit (+5%) and by speculative appetites in view of weddings in the sector. B per +1,95%; Bench Bpm +1,36%; Understanding +0,77%. In the top ten of the list remain Cnh +4,42%, Tenaris +1,83%, Campari +0,92%. The utilities raise their heads. Leonardo +10,7% and Generali +1% rose.
On the other side of the scales the collapse of Telecom weighs -5,52%, penalized by the press reports on sunset of the unique network project which would have been archived by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (Pnrr) sent to Brussels. The Minister of Technological Innovation, Vittorio Colao, in a webinar organized by the Caltagirone publisher group, seems to confirm this approach. But Tim disputes this interpretation and is preparing to present a complaint to Consob.
Rain of sales on Recordati -3,03%, Ferrari -2,81%, Stm -2,22, Interpump -2,07%, Diasorin -1,91%. Spread up to 109 points (+1,74%). The rate of the BTP rises to +0,86%.
