"The recent unrest demonstrates a strong social malaise, but it is a tension towards well-being, for a more equitable distribution of wealth". This is the opinion of Giovanni Castellaneta, president of Sace, who yesterday opened a conference in Rome on the commercial prospects offered by Brazil.
For two weeks, the South American country has been crossed by most impressive popular demonstrations of the last 20 years. About a million people took to the streets in several cities accusing the government of spending too much on big projects instead of investing in public services. In the crosshairs there are above all the resources allocated for next year's World Cup and for the Rio 2016 Olympics. The first victim was also recorded in the clashes on Thursday evening in Sao Paulo.
“Today these protests strike us – said Paolo Magri, vice president and director of the Institute for International Political Studies – but in reality they demonstrate that Brazil is a full democracy, the most advanced among those of the emerging countries. Just think of the case of Turkey, where the recent demonstrations have been managed in a very different way”.
Despite the serious social unrest, primarily the result of a still too strong inequality between social classes, the clouds that have gathered over the Brazilian economy in recent years are starting to clear. Of course, conditions are no longer as favorable as they were at the beginning of the millennium: after the dizzying growth of the pre-crisis years, in 2012 the GDP recorded a timid +0,9%, the worst result since 2009.
“It is undeniable that the wind has changed – underlined Magri -. Big growth is over, it registered trade deficit e inflation it has risen beyond the targets set by the government (in 2013 it should reach 6,3%, ed.). All this has added to the delays in the realization of some great works and to suspicions of political corruption".
In 2013, however, the GDP growth should accelerate again to +3,2% and in 2014 the electoral round and the football World Cup will give further impetus to the economy. “We are very confident that Brazil can return to consistent growth after the last few years of slowdown – Castellaneta said -. And there will be opportunities for Italian companies: we are Brazil's seventh trading partner globally, the second in the European Union”.
According to the data of the public company at the service of exports, our country is among the main investors in Brazil, where today they are active 520 Italian-owned companieshalf of which are in the manufacturing sector. Among the big names, Fiat, Pirelli, Telecom Italia, Campari and Ferrero stand out.
According to Sace's number one, “in Brazil there is a propensity to invest in sectors in which Italian companies have great possibilities: infrastructure, energy, defence, telecommunications. The middle classIt has also grown to include 40 million people. This has led to a strong increase in the market for manufactured products, a sector in which our country is among the world leaders".
La trade balance between Italy and Brazil recorded a surplus of 2012 billion in favor of Rome in 1,6: Italian exports to the South American country - mainly composed of instrumental mechanics (37,3%), motor vehicles (14,8%) and chemical products (8% ) – grew by 4,5% compared to 2011, while imports fell by 17,9%, to 3,4 billion euros. Castellaneta also specified that Sace's exposure in Brazil amounts to one billion and 400 million as regards guarantees (3,6% of the total portfolio), with operations growing by 13,2% in 2012.
In short, the trend is on the rise and Brazil's strengths are still many. Three in the first place, according to Magri: "The internal market, broad and developed, the demographic bonus, which will still last for 10-15 years, and the investment plan, which is worth $800 billion through 2016. It's not just about stadiums, of course."
