Although the coronavirus gallops in Brazil (over 50.000 dead and one million infected) and President Jair Bolsonaro threatens to take full powers, it is the pandemic itself that prevents the president from being removed: “There seem to be reasons to carry on a proceeding of impeachment, but in this moment of pandemic, which is an additional factor of concern for the behavior of the president, there is no propitious political environment”, he argues José Serra, Senator of the Brazilian Social Democratic Party, interviewed by FIRSTonline to comment on the political and economic situation of the largest country in South America.
Son of Calabrian immigrants, Serra, 78, is a long-time politician and has an important specific weight on the Brazilian scene. Defeated twice in the presidential election runoff by the left, in 2002 by Lula and in 2010 by Dilma Rousseff, today extends his hand to his former adversaries and to all the democratic forces to form a common front against the authoritarian escalation of the government: "We must unite, this unity is the tool we have at our disposal and which can lead us to a good port".
Former mayor of the city of São Paulo and governor of the state of São Paulo, with its 40 million inhabitants, is considered by many to be the best Minister of Health (1998-2002) of the last decades. He is also a respected economist, with a PhD from Cornell University, New York. As Foreign Minister of the Temer government (2016-2017) he met the then Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, whose praises he praises: "He represents a branch of Italian politics committed to democratic values and the promotion of social justice".
Senator, how do you assess Bolsonaro's handling of the pandemic? Is Brazil's image torn apart?
“Unfortunately, instead of looking at positive examples, Brazil seems to have opted to produce internal conflicts with the replacement of two health ministers in the midst of the pandemic. Changes that have contributed to the adoption of lame and uncoordinated measures with constant changes of orientation for the population and for local authorities. This picture undoubtedly causes a deterioration of the country's image abroad and an aggravation in the way in which the disease is dealt with”.
The government of Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2003) of which you were part carried out the great privatizations. Then came the state interventionism of Lula and now the neoliberal agenda of Bolsonaro and his economy minister Paulo Guedes. What does Brazil need to resume economic growth and fight inequality?
“We have had progress in each of these moments, but also setbacks. Independent of any government's ideology and agenda, our agenda today is the pandemic that challenges ideologies and dogmas to address disease and later recovery. What we have learned from previous governments is that it will require tremendous coordination between political and economic actors. Only in this way will we be able to overcome the very high rate of unemployment and underemployment and the consequent distrust of private actors to undertake new investments. We must remember that we will have high public debt at shorter maturities that will require a recovery in activity and tax revenues to resume a sustainable trajectory”.
While Bolsonaro's authoritarian escalation is mounting with increasingly harsh attacks on other powers, the hypothesis of impeachment is making its way. Are there the conditions?
“Crimes and deviations in the president's conduct seem to be many when he and his allies attack institutions and demonstrate little attachment to democracy. In theory, there seems to be the elements to carry out an impeachment proceeding, but in this moment of pandemic, which is an additional factor of concern for the president's behavior, there is no favorable political environment. We have been working from home since March, it is not possible to physically meet and follow the procedures required and established by the Constitution. I can't imagine an impeachment trial with remote sessions."
You were one of the main opponents of Lula and the Workers' Party, but today the request to unite with the left against Bolsonaro is coming from many quarters, including from your party (Social Democrats). Which path to follow?
“In addition to the vulgar words that we hear left and right from the President when he refers to members of other powers, we observe threats to other powers, death threats to some of its members and the insistent demand to re-establish the military regime, a period in which many Brazilians lost their lives and many others like me had to leave the country in a hurry to avoid being killed or tortured. For this we must unite. If we had imagined that the Bolsonaro government would take this path, this union would most likely have taken place in the 2018 elections. We did not imagine that a family and his friends could storm and threaten the democratic state. If democracy and institutions are in danger, the only solution is to unite as happened during the Diretas Já campaign (popular movement which in 1983-1984 fought for the end of the dictatorship). Unfortunately we are not dealing with a political adversary, but with a project of power that can lead to a serious institutional setback".
In this historical phase, bilateral relations prevail and large unions weaken. Trump no longer believes in NATO, the EU is divided and the Mercosur integration process is at a standstill. As a former foreign minister, how do you assess these international changes?
“Worrying. We are coming into conflict with a region, the European Union, which is Mercosur's second largest trading partner. We are ignoring the importance of a bloc which is the main foreign investor in Mercosur and Brazil the fourth destination of these investments. Unless there is a change of course in our foreign policy, which some already consider "non-foreign policy", the economic damage caused by the isolation will be enormous".
The Bolsonaro government has implemented a significant geopolitical repositioning. China, Brazil's main trading partner, is the constant target of government attacks. And as we draw closer to the USA and Israel, we move away from Africa and our Latin American neighbors. BRICS is no longer talked about. Are these changes positive?
"Absolutely not. Behavior that breaks with important trading partners such as China, that moves away from countries with which we have trade relations such as in the case of Africa, where many of our ancestors come from, and that ignores its Latin American neighbors, is completely harmful to the economy and for diplomatic relations. I have the impression that Brazilian foreign policy is aimed more at defending the interests of the United States, with submission and idolatry to President Trump, than those of Brazil. It is a repositioning that weakens us and isolates us from the rest of the world”.
Italy is a historical commercial and industrial partner for Brazil and Europe a cultural and political reference. Does Bolsonaro pose a threat to these relationships, or do they go beyond the current conjuncture?
“The Brazil-Italy relationship is solid and despite Bolsonaro's foreign policy it goes beyond the current situation. Italy is Brazil's second largest trading partner in Europe and a major investor in Brazil. Companies like Pirelli have been present in Brazil for a hundred years. Once the "Battisti" problem has been overcome, the conditions have returned for a broad rapprochement in the political and diplomatic fields. We have always maintained relations of friendship and bilateral cooperation".
In 2016, as foreign minister, he met the Italian government led by Matteo Renzi. How were relations with that executive and what is your opinion of the current Italian government?
“Renzi visited Brazil during the Rio de Janeiro Olympics. He went to São Paulo and Salvador de Bahia. He represents the part of Italian politics committed to democratic values and the promotion of social justice. In this sense he is a valid opponent of Salvini, who instead has an anti-immigration attitude. I follow how Conte has dealt with the pandemic that has hit Italy in a dramatic way and his work as leader of the coalition that brings together the left, center and M5S parties. This coalition is positively surprising because it has proved to be more stable than we could have imagined. It is a government that is fighting to do well, to give answers to the Italian people".
In Europe, the situation in the Amazon is also very worrying, due to the devastating fires and the words of Environment Minister Ricardo Salles who supports deregulation while attention is focused on Covid. Are you concerned about the government's environmental management? And what can be done for the Amazon?
“Of course I'm worried. The pandemic is a foretelling of what will happen to the world as climate change intensifies. The main job and income recovery plans after the crisis will be through the green economy. Europe and the US are already making plans such as the so-called Green New Deal. Climate challenges will certainly have an impact and lead to restrictions against the necessary expansion of Brazilian agribusiness. Brazil must remain integrated and play an important role in the search for environmentally sustainable solutions. Otherwise we risk suffering economic sanctions and isolating ourselves even more on the international scene".
