Dilma Rousseff's government, after having already overestimated the forecasts for 2011, is once again dispensing optimism and announces 2012% growth in gross domestic product for 5. The forecast is contained in the finance law proposed by the Ministry of Planning.
Instead, much more caution comes from the International Monetary Fund which in its World Economic Outlook estimated a 2,9-3% increase in Brazilian GDP in recent days. Even the forecasts of the Central Bank of Brazil are in line with the IMF and speak of a +3,27%.
Numbers that are below the world average (3,3%), of the other Latin American countries (3,6%) and of the BRICS: China (8,2%), India (7%) and Russia ( 3,3%); only South Africa would do worse (2,5). For 2013 and 2014 however, the Brazilian government forecasts growth of 5,5% per year, while the IMF is again treading water, and estimates +4% for next year.
Weighing on the Brazilian scenario are the uncertainties linked to the Eurozone which could curb the flow of capital towards emerging countries. The real estate market could be affected the most, a fact that risks reverberating throughout the country´s economic activity. The Brazilian government is also forecasting an increase in annual inflation of 4,5% and a gradual and slight devaluation of the real against the dollar over the next two years.
