Dilma does it. The president of Brazil, repeatedly contested in recent months (even loudly booed during the soccer World Cup in June), manages to get reelected with 51,4% of the votes in the runoff against the social democratic challenger Aecio Neves. By a whisker, but not with the country geopolitically split in half, as the forecasts said. "He will be the President of the North-East", it was written on the eve, and instead Dilma Rousseff lands yes in that part of Brazil (the poorest, which however this year for the first time in history is no longer on the "map of hunger in the world" compiled by the FAO), but also boasts a 40% in the South - getting 6,3 million votes - and wins in Rio de Janeiro and in Minas Gerais, the birthplace of both the outgoing president and her challenger. Which, on the other hand, conquers São Paulo and obtains a plebiscite in some cities, such as Curitiba (capital of Paranà) where it reaches 72%.
However, Dilma Rousseff's confirmation casts more than a shadow on the economy of the now former South American locomotive, which under her leadership began to decline after the boom of the 2000s. First of all, the reaction of the much feared financial markets. The forecasts are far from positive: "The Bovespa (the São Paulo stock index, ed), could lose 10% already in the first hour of the session", comments an analyst from Gradual Investimentos. “The markets were betting on a change in government: now they will be unhappy, e today the dollar risks rising to 2,70 reais”. This quota would be the new peak of a currency which under Dilma continued to depreciate, rising from 1,66 dollars four years ago to around 2,5 today.
But this is not the only negative data that Rousseff delivers to her next mandate: inflation grew by 14% in the last year, going from 5,91% to 6,75% and federal public debt has increased by 2010% since December 31, from 1.700 to 2.200 billion reais. Not only. The fall on the Stock Exchange of the most important company in Brazil, Petrobras, today more than ever in the eye of the storm, is also blamed on the Dilma management and the corruption scandal: in four years the value of the share has gone from 27,29 to 16,50 reais. “After Rousseff's re-election – still predicts Gradual Investimentos – the share could fall below 15 or even below 14 reais, while Neves' victory would have led to a clear rise in the share”.
But pending the opening of the South American markets, the Brazilian vote has immediate repercussions also on this side of the ocean. And they are also negative in this case: ETFs linked to Brazil collapse in Piazza Affari, with losses – around 10 in Italy – ranging from -7,33% of the Msci Brazil to -10% of the ETF which reproduces the Bovespa index.
