Last February 2, it was exactly 8 months away from Brazilian presidential elections, which probably they will close the Bolsonaro era (not without tensions, there are also those who predict a Capitol Hill-style exit from the scene), delivering to South America's leading economy the return of one of the most beloved leaders (and then more contested) around here: the 76-year-old Lula, founder of the PT (Workers' Party) and former president of Brazil from 2003 to 2011.
Lola at the moment is not formally a candidate, but the polls would give him largely winning already in the first round, with 44% of the preferences against 24% credited to outgoing president Jair Bolsonaro, of the far right. “Whether I'm the candidate or not – Lula recently declared in an interview with Corriere della Sera, in which he also hoped for a return to closer ties with the EU – I have always worked and will always work so that Brazil once again belongs to all Brazilians and that no one here has to go hungry”.
Lula now pleases the markets and the international community
The truth is that all clues point to the big comeback. Even the surprising endorsement of financial markets, in the past hostile to the statist management of the former union leader, but today according to the newspaper Economic Value Proponents of its global appeal: the international community, in fact, has long since dismissed Bolsonaro, guilty of a wicked management of the pandemic (Brazil has 70% vaccinated with two doses thanks to the initiatives of local governors, but Omicron is spreading and the deaths are over 600 a day), while a season of dialogue would also reopen with Lula on the climate agenda, after the 'current government has favored the deforestation of the Amazon forest. Last year, to give an idea of the emergency, more CO2 was released than oxygen due to the fires in some areas of the Amazon.
The problem of inflation in Brazil
But Lula's agenda will be busy especially on the economic front. What country is Bolsonaro bequeathing to him? A contradictory Brazil, with the great bogeyman ofinflation that will slow down GDP growth, triggering possible social tensions just before the elections. On the financial front, things should also be going well: in the month of January the Bovespa stock index gained 7%, the best growth since December 2020, driven by foreign investments and the rise in raw materials, in particular oil, which is now on its highest level since 2014, to the benefit of Petrobras, but also of coffee, cocoa and sugar.
On the other hand, the business confidence index is declining, but above all it is worrying inflation. Brazil closed 2021 with an increase in consumer prices of over 10% on an annual basis, the fourth highest figure among the countries under observation, behind only Argentina, Turkey and Estonia (as well as obviously Venezuela, which travels about 700%). The figure is higher than that of other large Latin American countries (Chile and Mexico around 7%, for example), the G20 average (+5,9%) and that of the Eurozone (less than 5%). Such high inflation, together with the slowdown in Chinese demand, threatens the rebound in GDP, which in 2021 marked +4,65% but whose forecasts for 2022 were cut short by the World Bank, from 2,5% to 1,4 .XNUMX%.
The first effects on the cost of living can already be seen: the rise of oil (which is around 90 dollars a barrel) benefits Petrobras shareholders but has meant that for the first time a liter of petrol has come to cost 8 reais (in Angra dos Reis, in the state of Rio de Janeiro), the equivalent of about 1,3 euros, while the norm until recently was around the euro per litre.
What happened to Lula's accuser?
In this context, Lula seems destined to return to that seat he left on 1 January 2011, before being overwhelmed together in half-battle by the Brazilian Tangentopoli. But now things have changed. Recently it definitely was closed the Triplex case, for which Lula was initially sentenced to 12 years' imprisonment (of which 580 days have already been served), subject to the annulment of the sentence (the trial should have started from scratch, but in the meantime the statute of limitations has elapsed) because according to the Supreme Court it was not appropriate for the case to be judged by the magistrate Sergio Moro, protagonist of the Brazilian Clean Hands (Lava Jato) and in the meantime also become Super Minister of Justice with Bolsonaro, who later resigned.
The irony of fate wants that now it is Moro, Lula's great accuser, who is in trouble. Recently, in fact, Brazil's most famous magistrate ended up in the eye of the storm for an alleged conflict of interest, after his signature was discovered on a lucrative consultancy contract (from $24.000 net per month) with the US company Alvarez&Marsal, which provides its services to some companies involved in the Lava Jato. Furthermore, Moro's political project, the so-called "third way", is not taking off: candidate in the next presidential elections to offer an alternative to the Lula-Bolsonaro dualism with the centrist Podemos formation, the polls give him just 8%. very far even from Bolsonaro and on a par with Ciro Gomes, former minister with Lula and today leader of the social democratic party.
