THEbird flu it also overwhelms South America and risks doing even more damage than in the USA in 2022, the year in which 836 outbreaks were counted on farms in 47 out of 51 states, causing the death of almost 60 million birds and damaging the economy of what it is still today the world's largest producer of poultry (21 million tons a year). Now to worry is the Brazil, which is the second world producer ahead of China, with 14,5 million tons a year, and which above all is the first exporter of chicken meat on the planet, given that a third of its production is destined abroad, especially towards Asia (China itself with over half a million tons imported but also Japan and Arab countries). For now, the epidemic is affecting wild animals almost exclusively, even if the Ministry of Health has already identified 4 cases of infection between humans and the government has decreed a state of animal health emergency for the next 180 days.
Contagion worries
If avian flu also spread to the South American giant, there would be enormous damage to the economy: thechicken exports Brazil yields almost 10 billion dollars a year, in a global market that has now exceeded 100 million tons produced per year. Meanwhile the virus is doing damage also in Chile, where the death of more than 9.000 marine animals has already been recorded on the northern coast (they are the main reservoir of the disease), in particular sea lions and penguins, but the case of Brazil is for now more alarming because it directly affects the tissue productive. In fact, the poultry economy involves over half a million workers, mostly small entrepreneurs whose main or only source of income is precisely the sale of poultry meat. A crisis such as what is hypothesized would therefore cause a certain social instability, because it would also have repercussions on the internal market, starting with inflation.
Bird flu also drives up the price of eggs
In Brazil, the consumption of chicken meat is 45,2 kg per inhabitant per year and is constantly growing, so a reduction in production would drive up prices and also condition the egg production: 52 billion units are consumed in the South American country every year, for a market value of around 4 billion euros. After all, the inflation effect has already occurred in the United States, where among other things it has hit the egg market in a more significant way. Finally, in Brazil there is also concern for women agricultural activities connected to poultry farms: the country is a huge producer of soybeans and corn, which are also used for animal feed, and whose harvest has broken all records in recent years. If, due to the spread of avian flu, the demand for these raw materials were to decrease, prices would eventually rise, which instead tended to decrease in the last period. This would also have consequences on the international market, and not just negative ones: if it is true that the spread of the epidemic would cause it less availability of chicken meat, it is also true that the lower domestic demand for soy – of which Brazil is the first producer and exporter in the world – and for corn, with the same supply, would pave the way for a greater share of exports.
