Trump effect on Brazil. Indeed, all over South America. Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right candidate who likes to compare himself to the American president, got an astonishing 46,2% in the elezioni prezidenziali, that it nearly earned him a historic first-round win. The ex soldier, who was also stabbed during the electoral campaign and saw his consensus grow steadily in the polls (but the result still goes beyond all expectations on the eve), benefited from the forced stop by former president Lula, still beloved in the green-gold country and whose dolphin, Fernando Haddad, former mayor of Sao Paulo, was only able to inherit partially, stopping at 28,9%. The news, however, is another: Bolsonaro's very large advantage suggests, unlike the majority authoritative opinions of the eve, which Haddad will have a hard time winning in the October 28 ballot, when the votes of the other left-wing candidates should converge on him. But this may not be enough, because those votes are few, much less than expected. Apart from those of Ciro Gomes, who obtained a good 12,5%, they are almost irrelevant and it is not certain that they all converge on Haddad. Suffice it to say that the environmentalist Marina Silva, who at one point in the campaign was credited with 15% and who will most likely divert her voters to Haddad, obtained only 0,9% of the vote.
A vote therefore very polarized and which could lead to an unexpected victory, a bit like that of Donald Trump himself against Hillary Clinton, almost two years ago these days. A result that it would have consequences for the entire South American continent, on which the wind of the right has already been blowing for some years and – precisely because of this – on which the US president himself counts on exercising ever greater influence, relying on the support of the majority of governments and aiming to strategically remove the area from possible Chinese expansion. Bolsonaro, who like the tycoon is in favor of easy weapons and spares no homophobic and misogynistic comments, has conquered the majority in practically all regions of Brazil, apart from some of the North East, such as Bahia, historically fiefdoms of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (in one State even managed to win Ciro Gomes). And the same thing is happening when looking at the map of the whole of South America, where by now there are only three socialist governments: Bolivia, Uruguay and Ecuador, leaving aside Venezuela which remains a separate matter, a confused military dictatorship which does not correspond to any political line. On the other hand, in addition to Colombia, which has always been on the right, Paraguay, Chile, Peru and above all Argentina have already veered to the right, which however will return to the vote in 2019 and Mauricio Macri will hardly be able to get reelected. But with the current times it seems equally difficult that the revived Cristina Kirchner will be able to return to the Casa Rosada, who is said to be even thinking of Diego Maradona as deputy.
However, all is not lost. As noted by the economist and expert on Latin America Giulio Sapelli in an interview with FIRSTonline, in the end, however, Lula's dolphin could win, “because the Brazilian left is very fragmented but will find convergence in the second round. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, has a smaller pool to draw from: in the second round he will not recover many more votes than his electorate ”. The numbers theoretically say this, but two decisive factors that are not too favorable to the progressives will affect the ballot: the aftermath of the Lava Jato scandal, which the citizens would like to put behind them once and for all and which is inexorably linked to Lula's Pt, although many experts consider it a conspiracy against him (and also a good part of the citizens, given that Lula, while he was in the running, was leading the polls); and the religious vow. Brazil is one of the most faithful countries in the world and the Evangelical Church has already endorsed Bolsonaro, defined by his supporters as "the Messiah". Which, as if that weren't enough, has received the explicit support of some very popular champions of Brazilian sport, such as the footballer Ronaldinho, who a few months ago had also speculated about running for a seat in Parliament, precisely on the list of the far-right party .
In favor of Haddad, who has already said he wants to "open to all alliances, none excluded", could instead play the female vote: in Brazil the clear majority of voters are women and they are already mobilizing to prevent a figure like that of "Bolso" from becoming president. Finally, abstentions in the first round will play a role: the turnout was 79,7%, a figure that seems high to us but which for the South American country is the lowest since 1998, as voting is mandatory and electronic (abstention must be justified, on pain of losing the right to vote). A fifth of the electorate has not yet expressed itself: in three weeks they could decide to do so, to curb the populist drift.
