Brazil, Bolsonaro: the first coup in the Covid-19 era?

For days there have been rumors about what it could be the first coup at the time of Covid-19, while half of the world's population is in "lockdown" and coronavirus infections have exceeded one million individuals. The rumors come mainly from Miami, where there is talk of a possible coup to destabilize Brazilian President Bolsonaro, while the emerging currency benchmark, the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency, it closed the week unchanged on the stabilization of the US dollar and oil, volatility champions in recent days.

The Brazilian President, like other Heads of State, was the protagonist a few days ago of a clear turnaround on the emergency from Covid-19, changing his mind with respect to the "diminished" version of the risks, in which he also distanced himself from our country and instilled trust only on the basis of the decidedly more favorable demographics of Brazil, to switch to a more realistic position which became necessary also in the light of the doubling of infections, now above 10.000 cases. Bolsonaro aligned himself with his health minister Mandetta, who currently surpasses him in popular support, trumpeting Trump's slogan that: “The cure cannot be worse than the disease”.

The change of tone came after as many as 25 out of 27 local government governors had asked the President to extend the quarantine measures more decisively and effectively. The discontent then also extended to Congress and the Supreme Court which called on the presidency to comply with the procedures defined by the World Health Organization (WHO, OMS in Italian). His images on the streets in the midst of people have increased the protest, favoring him dissatisfaction on the part of the soldiers of an army that had in fact favored their election. In no less than three government reshuffles, the weight of the military has grown with General Walter Souza Braga Netto at the head of the Presidential Staff, former Chief of Staff and of the Army.

So with almost two-thirds of the population that has proven to be more realistic and reasonable than Bolsonaro, its stance has become increasingly isolated and critical, with consensus at an all-time low. A reality also favored by the data: unemployment, on the other hand, exceeded double digits in 2019, reaching 11% and the debt/GDP ratio grew, approaching 90%, fueling a further expansion of the shadow economy and leaving very little room for a further increase in public spending that does not become unmanageable given the current budget deficit.

So ahead of the municipal elections in October too the presence of some Army Generals in the Government structure would seem to represent more of a thorn in his side for him than an effective guarantee of stability. And the winds of the "lost decade" of the Latin American continent are blowing again, sweeping away the bizarre positions on the "Metapolitics" of Foreign Minister Araujo, based on the construction of a new conservative nationalist Brazil under the leadership of an anti-globalist troika which in addition in Araujo they garner the support of Presidential Advisor Martins and the President's son.

The current Brazilian scenario can be described as follows: on the one hand there is the press that flaunts the institutional crisis, sounding the alarm on the growing problems relating to consumption and the banking system, due to the soaring insolvency rates; on the other side is the failed attempt by Bolsonaro to build a new identity for Brazil, violating the agreements with Mercosur and the European Union and leaving free space for "landlord" liberalism.

It's clear that right now power is in the hands of a sort of military junta led by General Braga Netto, as can be seen from the document dated March 31st signed by the Minister of Defense and by the three military commanders in the Government. A concentration of power that allows the army to "guarantee the state and democratic freedoms", according to the document, and therefore probably also the eventual defenestration of Bolsonaro should he continue to have controversial behavior which could raise a major civil outcry. Facts that demonstrate how this pandemic does not forgive irresponsible politicians.

The future of Brazil remains unknown, which in the meantime is facing the effects of the collapse in the price of oil together with that of exports to China, while the outflow of foreign investments has continued since last summer, when the diplomatic clashes began they represented the premise of Brazilian international isolation.