The overtaking became a reality at 18.45 on Sunday evening when, for the first time, the data flowing into Brasilia signaled that thegnatius Lula da Silva, The 77-year-old former trade unionist whom Barack Obama once called "the most popular politician in the world", had taken the lead in the counting of votes. At 20, the official proclamation: Lula won by a whisker (50,9% against 49,1%) for the third time the challenge for primacy against the incumbent president. He who, who in October 2018 had witnessed in prison (sentenced for corruption, acquitted on appeal) the success of the far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro, as the polls wanted, who nevertheless underestimated the strength of the right that does not seem to want to recognize the result: only two million votes out of an electoral body of 156 million voters.
Brazil elections: managers celebrate Lula president
However, the financial markets are celebrating with satisfaction the return to the scene of Lula, already a protagonist in the first term of one of the most successful chapters of the global economy. This morning, informs Bloomberg the Next Fund Bovespa opened in London with an increase of 3,3%. And F on the main index are trading up 5,2%, pending the opening of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange, so far one of the brightest lists of 2022 with an increase of 14% in dollars (against -18% of the S&P index and -16% of Piazza Affari in euros). Even bonds, after an initial slowdown, have recovered positions: the 2031 bond trades at 6,44% on the eve of the meeting on central bank rates: in September, the monetary authorities left the cost of money unchanged after a series of raises.
Managers like Lula the president: why?
Why so much availability towards the ex guerrilla? The government precedents between 2003 and 2010 play in his favor, but also paradoxically, the fragility of his success which will force the new president to seek thesupport from the center parties. For sure Lula will not repeat the Djlma Roussef mistakes, who replaced him at the top of the state, squeezing the accounts of Petrobras (a giant worth 84 billion) with legal and illicit means in order to support an expansive policy at all costs, guaranteed by the rally in raw materials and by Chinese purchases of raw materials, from raw iron to poultry.
Brazil's economy more robust than the other Brics
Other times. But, despite everything, theBrazilian economy appears among the most robust in the world of Emerging. If you look at the bric, the successful formula of the beginning of the millennium, the Brazil is certainly better than the China, in increasingly serious economic distress, or of the Russia, now a pariah country for managers. Me too'India vulnerable for the lack of energy sources, like less than the carioca economy judging by the opinion of Robeco need Franklin Templeton. Of course, at least in the short term, a certain disappointment could emerge over the failure to privatize Petrobras and Banco do Brasil. In exchange, however, the newly elected governor of San Paolo Tarcisio De Freitas, former Minister of Infrastructure under Bolsonaro, will proceed with the privatization of the aqueducts of Sabesp, the utility of the richest state.
Consumption recovery and environmental breakthrough: two axes that the markets like
Instead, the government Lula will favor the recovery of consumption thanks to the advances on some anti-poverty programs (113 dollars for each family under a certain threshold) and the re-launch of an extraordinary education plan. The real change of course, however, concerns the environmental policy. With the road closed to the denial of Bolsonaro, who has opposed any environmental conservation program in the Amazon (sensational dispute with Emmanuel Macron), the prospect of a season of ESg investments in the name of greenery and renewables that could also involve the big energy companies.
