The markets, for once, are concentrated on Europe. The news about Greece and Ukraine, in fact, influenced the performance of all the financial markets, driven in the evening by rumors of an agreement between Tsipras and the Eurogroup, despite the German denial. The Paris Stock Exchange gained 0,9%, Frankfurt +0,8%, Madrid +1,7%. In Milan, the FtseMib index rose by 1,7% also thanks to the recovery in industrial production.
After rumors about a possible deal, the Athens Stock Exchange started higher and closed with an 8% gain (it had lost 10% in the previous three sessions). The 5-year Greek government bond recovers with the yield falling to 14,9%, from 16% yesterday. The euro is stable against the dollar at 1,132 (from 1,132 at the previous close).
APPLE OVER 700 BILLION, THREE TIMES THE GREEK GDP
Positive New York, in the wake of a possible agreement in the Eurozone: the Dow Jones index gained 0,79%, the S&P 500 1,09% and the Nasdaq 1,3%. Apple has exceeded the threshold of 700 billion in capitalization, about three times the GDP of Athens (240 billion). For the occasion, the company bought a solar energy plant in California: an investment of 850 million dollars.
Few movements on other squares. Tokyo closed for holidays, Asian price lists almost unchanged. Modest increase in Shanghai (+0,2%), pending interventions by the central bank to revive growth.
Sharp decline in oil: Brent falls by 2,3% to 56,9 dollars a barrel, Wti to 50,8 dollars (-3,8%). The monthly report of the IEA contributed to the collapse, in which it is argued that the collapse of quotations has not yet reached the bottom because the stocks of the OECD countries risk reaching historical highs by the end of the summer.
SCHAEUBLE: THERE IS NO AGREEMENT. TODAY THE AUCTION BOT
This is the situation on the eve of a field day for the Old Continent. The meeting of the Eurogroup (the finance ministers of the euro area) on the Greece case will be held in Brussels and a new four-party summit on Ukraine is scheduled in Minsk, Belarus with the heads of governments of Germany, France, Russia and the same Ukraine. Predictions are difficult.
Yesterday afternoon, the stock exchanges celebrated, probably too soon, an agreement on the 4-6 month moratorium for Athens. Then in the late afternoon the German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, threw a bucket of ice water on the hopefuls. Not only did he define the news of an agreement as "false", but he also said that today's meeting of the Eurogroup will not be used to negotiate a new program for Greece.
It is in this climate that the Treasury's mid-month auctions kick off with the offer of 7 billion BTPs over 12 months (against 8 billion maturing). Discounted positive outcome. The spread between the ten-year Italian and German benchmark yields narrowed yesterday to 131 basis points for a domestic ten-year rate of 1,68%.
Derivatives held by the Treasury at the end of 2014 for debt management amounted to approximately 163 billion euros. This was reported by the head of public debt of the Treasury Maria Cannata in a hearing in the Chamber, specifying that 110 billion concern protection from interest rate fluctuations.
FLYING BANKS: THE COUPON IS BACK IN FASHION
Excellent start to the season of credit results. Understanding rose 4% after good data announced in the afternoon, extending the year-to-date gain to +7,5%. The group closed 2014 with a net profit of 1,69 billion euros, higher than the consensus expectations which remained at approximately 1,5 billion. The management board has proposed the distribution of a total dividend of 1,2 billion euro or a coupon of 7 euro cents for ordinary shares and 8,1 cents for savings shares. Currently, 24 analysts out of the 38 surveyed by Bloomberg recommend buying, for an average target price set at 2,73 euros.
Mediobanca yesterday it gained 4,4% after the release of better-than-expected quarterly results. The performance of the interest margin was very positive, rising to 281 million euro from 261 million euro a year earlier. Provisions rose by 50% to 180 million euro, while non-performing loans amounted to 3,8% of total loans. Core Tier 1 was at the end of December 12,65%.
The results were announced in the evening Banca Popolare di Milano (+1,7%). The institute returns to distribute the dividend after three financial years. The CEO Giuseppe Castagna began the conference call as follows: "We were very pleased to announce the return to the dividend in 2014, with a payout of more than 40% and a yield of around 3%".
Among the institutes that will announce the accounts today, it rose yesterday Mount Paschi (+0,9%), after rumors according to which some American funds are willing to subscribe to the next capital increase.
In the afternoon conference call by Unicredit (+1,4%). Positive assurances: Generali + 1,7% UnipolSai + 2,8%.
BLACKROCK FLAMES TELECOM ITALIA
Telecom Italia completed the best session since March 2014 with a leap of 5,2%, which pushes the price back close to 1 euro: 0,9985 euro. The exploit was made possible by the documents filed with the Sec, Consob Usa, which show that Blackrock is in possession, between shares and derivatives, of 6% of the capital of the tlc company.
The asset management giant had already climbed more than 10% between 2013 and 2014, but then reduced its stake to below 5% last April. Blackrock is thus the second largest shareholder behind Telco (about 22%) and ahead of Norges Bank (2,7%) and the Chinese Central Bank (2,1%).
A SCOTTISH PARTNER FOR FCA. MARCHIONNE: OUT OF HELL
“After seven years of hell for Europe we are finally in Purgatory”. So Sergio Marchionne yesterday in New York in front of an audience of possible investors in Italy. Renzi? “In eleven months he has done more than the others in many years. Let him work."
Meanwhile, Fiat Chrysler was making further gains, closing the session up 3,4% at 12,15 euros: the performance since the beginning of January +22%. Communications to the American SEC show that Baillie Gifford, asset manager based in Edinburgh, has increased the stake to 7,29% of the capital.
Mediobanca reiterated its Outperform rating with a target price of 13,20 euro. “After the 10,4% growth in registrations in Italy in January, we see a strong rebound in car sales in Europe”, write the Mediobanca analysts who expect a 2015% increase in sales for 3,2”.
The group has announced the reduction of layoffs at the Pomigliano plant (expiring on February 23) to meet demand for the Fiat Panda and has scheduled overtime hours for some Saturdays of the month in order to meet the increased demand.
Some slowdown instead for the production of Maserati in Grugliasco due to the lack of a component.
DRUMS IN HUGO BOSS TOGETHER WITH MARZOTTO
Zignago and the Marzotto family holding company bought 5 million Hugo Boss shares, equal to about 7%, and Tamburi Investment Partners bought 490.000 shares. Tip, according to a note, purchased the shares at a unit price of 102 euros, for a total investment of around 50 million euros.
In luxury, Tod's +2,1%, Luxottica +2,4% and Yoox +2,8% rose.
OIL SLOWS DOWN, SAIPEM AND TENARIS DOWN
Down was Saipem (-1,5%) which reversed the positive trend of the morning, which had pushed the quotation to the highs of the year at 9,165 euros, ending the session down by 1,5% at 8,86 euros. The main reason for the decline is the change in direction of oil prices.
Tenaris (-3%), worst blue chip today, and Eni -0,2% also closed weakly. Enel recovered, +1,4%, Finmeccanica +2,9%.
